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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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china

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial production & Trade, Eurozone, February

In one line: Industry supported growth in Q1; the trade deficit widened again. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, February

In one line: Solid; net trade probably boosted Q1 GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, March

In one line: Manufacturing output slows and the outlook sours on the back of the rising risk of rationing of gas supplies in some parts of the EZ. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Feb 2022 EZ Manufacturing Softened in Q4, but is Primed for a Jump in Q1

  • EZ industrial production fell again in Q4, but a rebound is underway; Q1 should be solid overall.
  • Output in the EZ auto sector snapped back in Q4; we're hoping for more of the same in Q1.
  • A surge in EZ demand for Chinese manufacturing goods is the main driver of the trade deficit in goods.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 Feb 2022 Growth is Slowing, Temporarily, but Employment is Looking Strong

  • Slowdowns in Germany and Austria weighed on the Eurozone economy in the fourth quarter…
  • …But employment rose strongly, consistent with robust surveys and monthly claims data.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit widened in December, thanks to soaring imports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Feb 2022 Soaring Imports from China are Depressing EZ Net Trade in Goods

  • A sustained acceleration in imports from China is driving the deterioration in the EZ trade surplus.
  • Germany's trade deficit with China blew out in 2021; will 2022 bring stabilisation?
  • Watch out for two important statistical distortions in the quarterly EZ trade data.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Jan 2022 Will the Real Trade Data in the Eurozone Please Stand Up?

  • The EZ's trade surplus in goods is a lot perkier if we choose to believe the ECB's current account data.
  • Net services exports likely jumped in Q4, but this means intellectual property investment plunged.
  • EZ portfolio outflows are now slowing, belatedly; inflows signal trouble for equities in 2022.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

22 Dec 2021 The Euro Glut is Swelling, this time due to EZ Demand for Equities

  • The ECB’s data continue to paint a less dramatic picture of trade in goods than Eurostat's numbers.
  • Net services exports likely will jump in Q4, but this will be offset in part by a fall in IP capex.
  • The euro glut has expanded during the pandemic, due mainly to a rise in EZ foreign equity holdings.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

21 Dec 2021 Supply Chain Issues will Continue to Weigh on EZ Output in 2022

  • Supply bottlenecks are now easing, but likely will remain a challenge at the start of next year.
  • Rising energy costs and new virus restrictions are the key risks to manufacturing in the near term.
  • The virus might also drive more long-lasting distortions between supply and demand.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

17 Dec 2021 EZ Monetary Stimulus is Set to Slow Next Year, Virus Permitting

The ECB will end PEPP in March, but is keeping the door open for a resumption if the virus worsens.

ECB asset purchases will be around €500B next year on current plans, half the pace in 2021.

The SNB is standing pat, as expected, and we're lowering our outlook for EZ growth in Q1.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

16 Dec 2021 Suddenly, the Near-term Path Ahead for the ECB is Less Clear

Ms. Lagarde will stick to the signal that PEPP is likely to end in March, but Omicron is a big risk to this call.

The ECB's inflation forecasts will increase today; how close to 2% will they be for 2023 and 2024?

No rate hikes in 2022, but speculation about lift-off will intensify in the next six-to-12 months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

15 Dec 2021 Expect Another "No Change" at SNB's Meeting This Week

Higher inflation recently has allowed the SNB to tolerate a much stronger franc than in the past.
We expect the Bank to keep all policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.
But falling inflation and a stronger franc heading into 2022 will force it to ramp up CHF sales soon.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

14 Dec 2021 Wage Growth in the EZ Set to Accelerate in 2022, We Think

All signs point to stronger EZ wage growth next year, but it won't be easy to tell in real time.
Negotiated wage growth is still slowing, but the ECB’s preferred compensation measure is firming.
The trend in unemployment points to negotiated wage growth rising towards 3% next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

24 Nov 2021 Surging Virus Cases Outweigh Rising PMIs in our Q4 Outlook

  • The new virus wave and associated return of restrictions adds to the downside risks for Q4...
  • ...November's rise in the PMI hasn't captured the recent reimposition of restrictions in Germany.
  • GDP growth in Q4 looks to be closer to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; we are nudging down our forecast.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

19 Nov 2021 A Sinking Euro Adds to the Upside Risk for the ECB's CPI Forecasts

  • Euro depreciation adds additional upside risk to the ECB's December core inflation forecasts.
  • The outlook for relatively rapid Fed tightening is leading the euro lower, but fundamentals matter too.
  • Recent comments from Isabel Schnabel suggest the ECB is o.k. with expectations of a hike in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

17 Nov 2021 We're Holding on to our Outlook for Q4; by the Skin of our Teeth

  • EZ GDP and employment rebounded robustly in the third quarter, but growth is now slowing.
  • We're sticking to our view of 0.8% q/q GDP growth in Q4, but risks are piling up to the downside.
  • Core inflation in France will remain close to 1.5% through Q4, but we think the trend is around 1.0%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

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