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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

car sales

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October

In one line: German retail sales tanked at the start of Q4. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q3-2022

In one line: Surprisingly solid; likely boosted by a leap in car sales.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor German Industrial Production Surprised to the Upside in August

  • German industrial production likely surprised to the upside in August, helped by a leap in auto output.
  • EZ retail sales likely fell by around 1% in Q3, pointing to another fall in consumers' spending on goods.
  • The downturn in EZ construction continued in Sep- tember, due to accelerating weakness in Germany.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Think the ECB will go Big This Week, but It's a Close Call

  • We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
  • Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
  • Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Still Signal a Recession in Germany

  • Germany is now likely entering a technical recession, but inventories and net trade are wildcards.
  • The survey data in Germany are plunging, and real M1 growth is sinking without a trace...
  • ...But near-real-time data are holding up and early hard data for Q3 have been robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail sales, Eurozone, June

In one line: Inflation is weighing heavily on sales heading into Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2022 EZ Monitor This Week's Data will Set the Scene for the Incoming Recession

Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate. 

GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.

We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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