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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

capex

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Ms. Schnabel Sends a Clear Signal of a 50bp Hike in September

Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.

Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.

Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2022 EURUSD is about to Hit Parity, and We See Little Reason to Buy

EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.

We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...

...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2022 How Can the EZ Avoid a Recession in the Next Few Quarters?

Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.

A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...

...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 June 2022 Spain's Outlook Is Better Than Italy's, Despite Higher Inflation

The Spanish economy gained steam in Q2, and probably will do so again in Q3, thanks to tourism.

Italy’s economy will not be so lucky. We have revised down our forecast for H2 & now expect a recession.

One-off fiscal measures in Germany will result in uncomfortably high EZ core inflation for longer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 June 2022 Brace for Further Russian Gas Flow Cuts and Higher Inflation

Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.

This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...

...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 June 2022 The Devil is in the Detail in the Detailed Q1 EZ GDP Data

The Irish boost to EZ GDP growth in Q1 will have a reverse impact on growth in the second quarter.

We now expect EZ GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, 0.1pp lower than previously.

The risks to our forecast for a weak H2 are to the up-side, especially if the gas embargo remains elusive.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 May 2022 The Near-Term Uncertainty over German GDP Growth is Rising

Volatility in inventories and net exports has thrown near-term German GDP forecasts into disarray.

We’re sticking with our assumption of 1.5% growth in 2022, which includes a technical recession in H2.

Market forecasts for German growth will fall further, but we could well have to lift ours too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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