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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.
Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.
Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
EURUSD is closing in on parity and it won’t stop falling there; don’t buy the dip yet.
We think French GDP rose by 0.4-to-0.5% q/q in Q2, better than the INSEE estimate...
...But we are less optimistic than the statistical office on H2; we see growth of just 0.1% in Q3 and Q4.
Forecasting recessions is risky, but that’s where we think the EZ is headed, all the same.
A thawing of the relationship with Russia and excess household savings could prevent the downturn...
...So could stronger-than-expected capex and net exports; we doubt any of these will ride to the rescue.
The Spanish economy gained steam in Q2, and probably will do so again in Q3, thanks to tourism.
Italy’s economy will not be so lucky. We have revised down our forecast for H2 & now expect a recession.
One-off fiscal measures in Germany will result in uncomfortably high EZ core inflation for longer.
Gas prices are rising again, as the Kremlin cut flows to some EU countries and US supply hit snags.
This is laying the groundwork for government controls on energy usage by firms; rationing is here...
...Still further upside for gas prices is likely, keeping energy inflation and the headline rate elevated.
The Irish boost to EZ GDP growth in Q1 will have a reverse impact on growth in the second quarter.
We now expect EZ GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, 0.1pp lower than previously.
The risks to our forecast for a weak H2 are to the up-side, especially if the gas embargo remains elusive.
Volatility in inventories and net exports has thrown near-term German GDP forecasts into disarray.
We’re sticking with our assumption of 1.5% growth in 2022, which includes a technical recession in H2.
Market forecasts for German growth will fall further, but we could well have to lift ours too.
Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.
We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.
Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.
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