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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

budget

23 Nov 2021 Will Bund Yields Rise to Zero Next Year, If the Virus is Contained, Yes

  • Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
  • ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
  • The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

2 Nov 2021 Italian Reforms are Coming; will they make a Difference to Growth?

  • Italy has a reputation for a slow judicial system, weak tax collection and low labour productivity...
  • ...But Draghi has pushed through reforms aimed at reversing these drags on the economy.
  • We are hopeful, but sceptical, about how much reform will happen before the next election, in 2023.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

20 Oct 2021 Construction in the EZ has St alled, but Should Rebound Slightly in Q4

  • EZ construction output slipped in August, all but ensuring a decline through Q3 as a whole.
  • Shortages in labour and raw materials are holding back construction, but output should rebound in Q4.
  • A traffic light coalition is now a solid base-case in Germany, but a leap in fiscal stimulus isn't.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Oct 2021 How Much Fiscal Support for the French Economy Next Year?

  • The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
  • …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
  • We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

  • The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
  • ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
  • The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2021 What is the Fiscal Multiplier for Government Spending in Italy

  • The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
  • Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
  • We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Sept 2021 A New Chancellor in Germany, but Same-Old Murky Coalition Politics

  • The polls in Germany have stabilised, pointing to an inconclusive result in Sunday's vote.
  • The SPD's Olaf Scholz likely will be Chancellor, but the route to a stable coalition isn't clear.
  • All eyes on the combined tally of the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke; +50% and bunds will suffer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2021 How to Think about the Trajectory of EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year

  • EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.
  • EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP in 2022, mostly in the South.
  • Public investment as a share of GDP was rising before the virus; we think this trend will continue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2021 The Economic Upturn in the EZ Continued at the Start of Q3

The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3.

The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3 forecast.

The EZ budget deficit remained wide in Q1, but it will come down as the economy recovers.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 June 2021 Who's Afraid of the Taper? Not Many it Seems, for Now

From an immunological perspective, variant risk is assessed on a spectrum—no variant is either completely resistant or susceptible to the vaccines—but for markets it is binary.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 June 2021 Moving Closer to the First Set of EU Recovery Fund Disbursements

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the Recovery and Resilience Fund, or RFF.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 June 2021 No Clear Signal from the Polls in Germany to bet on Bund Volatility

With Mr. Biden recently installed in the Oval office, and the Conservative government in the U.K. not battling for re-election until 2024, the main sources of political risk for investors will come from Europe in the next 12 months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 June 2021 The EZ Services Sector is Now Stretching its Legs

If the PMIs are right, services activity in the Eurozone rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter, as virus restrictions were eased.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 May 2021 Italian Economy is Roaring Back to Life, but We're Still Cautious

Italy's economy shrank by 8.9% last year; the second largest contraction of any EZ economy after Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence