EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, April 2023

In one line: A sticky core leaves room for two more 25bp hikes over the summer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, March 2022

In one line: Markets believe the ECB is done; we don’t.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, March 2023

In one line: Staying the course; a sustained rise in volatility is needed to prevent hikes in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, February 2023

In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, February 2023

In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor BTP Yields will Rise, but the Italian Yield Curve is Not About to Invert

• Italian bond yields offer an attractive carry, but yields are likely to stay high this year and next...
• ...Even if the spread to bunds falls, as we expect, assuming Italy doesn’t rock the boat with the EU.
• We expect BTP yields to rise to 4.35% by June, before easing back to 4.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone