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With one month to go, polls point to a right-wing coalition government in Italy from next month.
The BTP yield has risen more than other government yields; we think it will rise to 4.0% by end-Q3.
We doubt the small rise in EZ consumer confidence in August is the start of a sustained rebound.
Higher inflation for longer will lead to higher interest rates, which will support banks’ interest margins.
This implies higher profits, which makes bank equities attractive right now.
But risks to the profit outlook remain in the form of windfall taxes and falling demand for loans.
We think the ECB will continue to buy peripheral bonds using redemptions from core countries...
...This should, we think, mean that the TPI can remain in the shadows this year.
We still believe the ECB will hike by 100bp more this year; the bund 2s10s will invert in Q1-23.
If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.
This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.
Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.
After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.
The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.
The PMIs now warn that the EZ economy is sliding into recession, consistent with our outlook.
Inflation and supply-side pressures are easing, but not quickly enough to offer any near-term relief.
The ECB is caught in a stagflationary vice; it will continue hiking even as growth slows.
The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.
The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.
Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.
We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.
The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.
Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.
Italy’s overall aid to offset rising living costs still trails that in Spain, despite new fiscal support.
The measures announced so far likely won’t fully offset the hit to real incomes from higher inflation.
Windfall taxes are not enough, and further debt issuance will keep a floor under debt servicing costs.
All signs point to a drop in Swiss imported inflation; weaker growth will weigh on domestic prices.
Calling the peak in the headline rate is fraught with difficulty; our best bet is August.
A snap election may still be avoided, despite Italy’s Prime Minister Draghi’s resignation.
Headline inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in June, and it will rise further still in Q3.
Falling rate expectations are easing the pressure on the ECB; we think it will stick to 25bp this month.
EZ manufacturing is still weakening; EURCHF will hover around parity through Q3.
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