Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- EZ unemployment fell further in November, due to an improvement in all major economies.
- Unemployment in the euro area will fall below 7% soon, even with Omicron now a near-term threat.
- Our labour market forecasts imply accelerating wage growth in 2022; the ECB will take note.
- The December PMIs indicate that EZ manufacturing production is now outpacing services output.
- German GDP growth underperformed in Q4, according to the PMIs; Spain did relatively well.
- French consumer sentiment remained resilient in Q4, but we look for a setback in Q1.
- Germany's nominal trade surplus in goods fell further in October, but real net trade rebounded.
- Net exports in services in Germany collapsed in Q3; that won't happen again in Q4.
- The race to replace Jens Weidmann as Buba president is on; all contenders are relatively dovish.
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
- EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
- Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
- We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.
- The message from the PMI: The reopening boom is over, and supply-side woes are hitting demand.
- We are adjusting our EZ GDP growth forecast for Q4 down a tad, to 0.7-to-0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
- No change from the SNB, as expected; Spain's Q2 GDP growth cut by more than half.
- No one expects any changes at the SNB today, us included; we think policy will be on hold until 2024.
- The CHF will strengthen to the end of the year, but not enough to warrant significant FX intervention.
- Markets are worried about Evergrande—rightly—but contagion is limited, for now.
Industry in the euro area remained red hot at the end of Q2.