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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

October

29 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor We See no Green Shoots in the Eurozone Money Supply Data

The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in October and still points to falling output.

Households’ deposits are now falling outright, likely driven in part by a run-down of pandemic savings.

The outlook for lending supports our call for slowing growth in consumers’ spending and investment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Nov 2022 Eurozone Monitor The October Inflation Data are a Halloween Nightmare for the ECB

  • EZ inflation zoomed higher in October, and we now fear it will stay at 10% or higher in Q4.
  • Core inflation will remain close to 5% in Q4, and above 4% through the first quarter.
  • EZ GDP growth defied our expectations of a fall in Q3, but the slowdown is real, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, October

In one line: Activity in the EZ’s largest economy is shrinking at break-neck speed.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Oct 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Expected Path for ECB Rates is Resilient to Rising Volatility

  • Near-term rate expectations for the ECB have so far been resilient in the face of rising market volatility...
  • ...But we still think the October meeting will set the stage for a subtle pivot to a slower pace of tightening.
  • The ECB’s own measure of market volatility is climbing towards uncomfortably high levels.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor A New Record in the EZ Core CPI Signals a 75bp Hike Next Week

  • When the facts change, so do our forecasts; we now think the ECB will hike by 75bp next week.
  • Headline inflation in the Eurozone could hit 10% in September, with core inflation at 4.5%.
  • Core goods inflation is rocketing, and it likely will remain higher than implied by surveys, for a while.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Priming Markets for a Series of 50bp Rate Hikes

  • We now think the ECB will lift rates by 50bp three times this year, but still expect a pause in H1-23.
  • Today's EZ inflation data will offer little relief for markets recently stung by hawkish ECB comments.
  • Surveyed inflation expectations are falling, in line with the idea of a reduced tightening pace in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor One Month to go: A Right-Wing Coalition in Italy Seems a Safe Bet

With one month to go, polls point to a right-wing coalition government in Italy from next month.

The BTP yield has risen more than other government yields; we think it will rise to 4.0% by end-Q3.

We doubt the small rise in EZ consumer confidence in August is the start of a sustained rebound.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Ms. Schnabel Sends a Clear Signal of a 50bp Hike in September

Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.

Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.

Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The ECB will Flexibly Reinvest PEPP Redemptions through H2

We think the ECB will continue to buy peripheral bonds using redemptions from core countries...

...This should, we think, mean that the TPI can remain in the shadows this year.

We still believe the ECB will hike by 100bp more this year; the bund 2s10s will invert in Q1-23.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Core Inflation in the EZ will Remain "Undesirably High" for a While

We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.

Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.

If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 July 2022 EZ Monitor The ECB goes big on rates, and Italy heads for elections

The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.

The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.

Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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