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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The gap between M1 growth and soaring inflation widened in October and still points to falling output.
Households’ deposits are now falling outright, likely driven in part by a run-down of pandemic savings.
The outlook for lending supports our call for slowing growth in consumers’ spending and investment.
In one line: Activity in the EZ’s largest economy is shrinking at break-neck speed.
With one month to go, polls point to a right-wing coalition government in Italy from next month.
The BTP yield has risen more than other government yields; we think it will rise to 4.0% by end-Q3.
We doubt the small rise in EZ consumer confidence in August is the start of a sustained rebound.
Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.
Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.
Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.
Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
We think the ECB will continue to buy peripheral bonds using redemptions from core countries...
...This should, we think, mean that the TPI can remain in the shadows this year.
We still believe the ECB will hike by 100bp more this year; the bund 2s10s will invert in Q1-23.
We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.
Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.
If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
The ECB ends forward guidance with a surprise 50bp hike; we see 25bp in September and October.
The new anti-fragmentation tool sounds like a bazooka, but after reading the details, we are not sure.
Italy will head to the polls in September; the far-right is polling highest.
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