2 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor Consumption will Pull Down Italian GDP in the Coming Quarters

Consumption propelled Italian economic growth in Q2 and Q3 but it will drag GDP down in Q4 and Q1.

We now look for a worse, albeit still shallow, recession in Italy over the coming quarters.

Swiss November inflation data support our call for just one more rate rise in the SNB’s hiking cycle.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

• A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
• Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
• Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Think the ECB will go Big This Week, but It's a Close Call

• We look for a 75bp hike from the ECB this week, but the consensus is evenly split between this and 50bp.
• Ms. Lagarde will be asked about the terminal and neutral rates; will she get pinned down on a number?
• Factory orders in Germany fell further in July, and turnover points to a decline in production.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone