Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
May
- Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
- Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
- BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
- Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
- Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rise in inflation since the SNB’s last meeting means it will surely raise rates on September 22.
- The ECB went big last week; the SNB will follow suit as it seems happy with current franc strength.
- In Q4 we think the SNB will hike by 50bp, much less than the 125bp we expect from the ECB.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The surge in gas prices adds to our conviction that inflation will remain high, despite a hit to EZ activity.
- A probable EZ recession is weighing heavily on the outlook for Switzerland’s economy in H2.
- EZ investor sentiment tumbled in September; it will sour further as the ECB continues to hike.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
