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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

March Services

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 May 2022 No Change to our SNB Forecast, Despite More Hikes from the ECB

 We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...

...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.

EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 May 2022 The EZ Inches Closer to an H2 Recession in our New Forecasts

Our baseline view now is that Europe is moving seriously to rid itself of Russian energy supplies.

But a gas embargo will not be implemented overnight, which should smooth the economic hit.

German growth will be hit hardest, but we are lowering our forecasts for France and Italy too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Composite PMIs, Eurozone, April

In one line: Activity picked up pace in April, will the new Russian oil ban reverse this?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 May 2022 The ECB will Find it Hard to Justify QE Past Q3, even if Growth Slows

Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.

Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.

The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Apr 2022 Is this the Start of a Sustained Fall in Energy Inflation? We Think So

The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.

German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.

Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, April 2022

In one line: Eurozone economic activity picks up pace heading into Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, April 2022

In one line: A drop in manufacturing output is dragging on activity heading into Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, April 2022

In one line: French economy heads into Q2 on solid footing as services activity picks up pace.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Apr 2022 The ECB Remains on Track to Dial Down QE by Early Q3

The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.

We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.

Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, February 2022

In one line: The deficit in goods remains wide, but the surplus in services is robust. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, March 2022

 In one line: Still robust, but expect softer headlines in Q2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Apr 2022 EZ Inflation is Taking no Prisoners; Don't Expect Relief in Q2

  • Inflation in the Eurozone was still soaring at the end of Q1, and it could well go higher still.
  • Energy inflation is a wildcard; we think it will remain above 40% y/y through April and May.
  • The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts again; QE will end in June, with a rate hike in September

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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