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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

July

7 Dec 2021 Factory Orders in Germany are Falling, but Output is Rebounding

  • Factory orders in Germany crashed in October, pegged back by a plunge in large orders…
  • …But turnover jumped, by 3.6% on the month, pointing to a consensus-beating production report today.
  • German manufacturing likely will do well in Q4, but the virus is now a severe risk for services.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, July 2021

  • In one line: A fall in net services trade offset a rebound in the goods surplus; net portfolio outflows slowed. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, July 2021

  • In one line: Stabilising, but still-weak, due mainly to a wider deficit with China. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, July 2021

  • In one line: Finally above pre-virus levels, but not the start of a new trend.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Sept 2021 The EZ Industrial Slumber Continues, but Italy is Doing Fine

  • Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend.
  • Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less capital intensive industry...
  • ...A correction may be on the way but strong business surveys mean that we remain optimistic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Sept 2021 A Slight Slowdown in PEPP is Coming in Q4, as Expected

  • The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month.
  • Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4 satisfy markets?
  • The German trade surplus snapped back in July, as imports plunged; more of the same is coming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Sept 2021 The ECB will Signal a Slower Q4 Pace of PEPP Purchases Today

  • The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch.
  • The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth and inflation.
  • Trade data in France suggest that tourism is rebounding, but a full recovery is still a way off.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, July 2021

  • In one line: Still widening, but we look for better in coming months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2021 A V-Shaped Recovery in the EZ Economy is Now in Sight

  • German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat.
  • Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3.
  • We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, July 2021

  • In one line: Decent, but probably not the beginning of a sustained upturn.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2021 Major Orders Flatter Jump in German Manufacturing Demand

  • The July jump in German factory orders was driven entirely by major transport equipment.
  • Industrial production in Germany rebounded in July, but we still think the trend is sideways.
  • Spain should grow faster than elsewhere in Q3 and perhaps even Q4, but will continue to lag its peers

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, July 2021

  • In one line: Solid, but driven almost exclusively by major export orders to non-EZ economies.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2021 The Balance of Evidence Still Points to a Robust Q3 in the EZ

  • Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better.
  • The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick in new cases since the end of Q2.
  • Consumers' spending in services will deliver strong growth in Q3 in the major EZ economies.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Sept 2021 The Red Hot EZ Inflation Prints Have Arrived, as Expected

  • EZ inflation is running hot, and it will rise further in Q4; will markets and the ECB flinch?
  • German unemployment fell further midway through Q3, and further improvement is in store.
  • Consumers' spending, ex-services, in France dipped in July, but Q3 as a whole will be decent.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence