Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
July
- The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
- We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
- Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
- Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
- BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
- Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
- Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
- Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
- Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
- Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
- Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
- But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
- Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
- The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
- EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
