Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

July

23 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The SNB's 75bp Hike will be a One- Off; Expect 50bp in December

  • The SNB joined the 75bp rate hike club yesterday; it won’t stay there for long.
  • We expect a 50bp hike in December, taking the rate to 1.00%, and we think the Bank will pause in 2023.
  • Unlike the ECB, the SNB is capping the amount of bank deposits that will benefit from higher rates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Centre-Right Looks Set to Win in Italy; Big Challenges Await

  • Polls point to a right-wing coalition leading Italy soon; the economy is still headed for recession.
  • Deep-rooted issues need to be tackled to ensure a growth profile that keeps public debt sustainable.
  • BTP yields will rise until the new PM starts work, but will fall next year as political uncertainty abates.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Construction Stabilised in July, but Q3 Will be Poor Overall

  • EZ construction output rose slightly in July, but we doubt this is the beginning of a sustained rebound.
  • Survey data suggest that construction will weaken further in the third quarter, after a soft Q2.
  • Private sector construction will be hit by rising rates; civil engineering should be more resilient.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor We Still Look for 75bp in October as Core Inflation Rises, Again

  • A further leap in core inflation in September will push the ECB to deliver another 75bp hike next month.
  • Energy inflation is now falling, slightly, but it won’t prevent the headline from rising again in September.
  • Disinflation in oil products is accelerating, but gas and electricity prices still have further to rise.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Will the Energy Crisis and ECB hikes lead to a Credit Crunch?

  • Our forecasts for ECB rates imply a rise in mortgage rates of over 400bp, raising the risk of defaults.
  • Rising mortgage rates will mean house prices will be falling by around 1% year-over-year by end 2023.
  • Higher risk is already discouraging banks from lending, but a credit crunch will likely be avoided.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is Playing a Risky Game, but it has no Choice

  • No one knows how the EZ economy will respond to a 250-to-300bp increase in interest rates.
  • But the ECB is not necessarily making a policy mistake; the surge in inflation can’t be ignored.
  • Sustained fiscal stimulus and a resilient labour market offer hope that the ECB will get away with it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor No Help for ECB Doves Looking Beyond the CPI Data for Support

  • ECB doves have little to pin their hope on for next
    week, despite soft survey data in manufacturing.
  • The EZ labour market was resilient at the start of Q3, but spending, ex-services, was mixed.
  • EZ manufacturing is now likely in recession, but this is not enough to stay the ECB's hand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor One Month to go: A Right-Wing Coalition in Italy Seems a Safe Bet

With one month to go, polls point to a right-wing coalition government in Italy from next month.

The BTP yield has risen more than other government yields; we think it will rise to 4.0% by end-Q3.

We doubt the small rise in EZ consumer confidence in August is the start of a sustained rebound.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The Swiss Economy won't be Unscathed by the EZ Recession

  • Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.5% in Q2, the same as in Q1, and more or less in line with the EZ aggregate.
  • The German recession will weigh on Swiss industry in H2, and consumers’ income is being squeezed.
  • We look for GDP growth broadly to stagnate in H2, but the SNB is still likely to hike rates further

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor Ms. Schnabel Sends a Clear Signal of a 50bp Hike in September

Eurozone inflation hit a new record in July, and it will rise to more than 9% by September.

Ms. Schnabel all but confirms that the ECB will hike its deposit and refi rates by 50bp in September.

Construction in the EZ is rolling over after a strong start to the year; more weakness is likely in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor The EZ will Not Steer Clear of Recession, Even if Imports Fall

The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.

Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.

Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Manufacturing did Well in Q2, but it will Slow in Q3 and Q4

Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.

We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Core Inflation in the EZ will Remain "Undesirably High" for a While

We now see core HICP inflation in Germany rising to just over 4% by September.

Core inflation in Italy is still rising; we see the HICP rate climbing to 4.5% in the next few months.

If yesterday’s softer U.S. CPI data is the start of a trend, EURUSD likely won’t hit parity by September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Swiss Inflation will Peak in August; will Spanish GDP Slow in Q3?

We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.

Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...

...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor The EZ Labour Market is Resilient, but Cracks are Now Showing

The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.

Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.

We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, June & ISTAT ESI, Italy, July

In one line: Money supply data support our call that the EZ is heading into a recession; the Italian economy started Q3 on the back foot.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 July 2022 EZ Monitor This Week's Data will Set the Scene for the Incoming Recession

Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate. 

GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.

We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence