Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

February 2021 Trade

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, July 2021

  • In one line: Stabilising, but still-weak, due mainly to a wider deficit with China. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Sept 2021 The EZ Industrial Slumber Continues, but Italy is Doing Fine

  • Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend.
  • Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less capital intensive industry...
  • ...A correction may be on the way but strong business surveys mean that we remain optimistic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Sept 2021 A Slight Slowdown in PEPP is Coming in Q4, as Expected

  • The ECB will slow the pace of PEPP in Q4, probably by around €20B, to €60-€70B per month.
  • Bond yields fell as Ms. Lagarde spoke, but will the ECB's decision on PEPP in Q4 satisfy markets?
  • The German trade surplus snapped back in July, as imports plunged; more of the same is coming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Sept 2021 The ECB will Signal a Slower Q4 Pace of PEPP Purchases Today

  • The ECB will announce a slowdown in the pace of PEPP today, but markets likely won't flinch.
  • The central bank's new forecasts will deliver upgrades to the outlook for growth and inflation.
  • Trade data in France suggest that tourism is rebounding, but a full recovery is still a way off.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, July 2021

  • In one line: Still widening, but we look for better in coming months.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2021 A V-Shaped Recovery in the EZ Economy is Now in Sight

  • German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat.
  • Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3.
  • We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Sept 2021 Major Orders Flatter Jump in German Manufacturing Demand

  • The July jump in German factory orders was driven entirely by major transport equipment.
  • Industrial production in Germany rebounded in July, but we still think the trend is sideways.
  • Spain should grow faster than elsewhere in Q3 and perhaps even Q4, but will continue to lag its peers

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Sept 2021 The Balance of Evidence Still Points to a Robust Q3 in the EZ

  • Don't fret the July plunge in EZ retail sales; Q3 as a whole will be OK, and services will do even better.
  • The risk of new virus restrictions remains low, de- spite the uptick in new cases since the end of Q2.
  • Consumers' spending in services will deliver strong growth in Q3 in the major EZ economies.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27Aug 2021 Europe Still has Low Birthrates, but they're Not Falling Anymore

  • European birth rates have rebounded since the end of the 1990s, but remain below replacement levels.
  • The rebound in German marriage and birth rates stands out; not much sign of a rebound elsewhere.
  • Women are still postponing having their first child; that will continue to hold back total fertility rates.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Aug 2021 A Nervy Stand-Off or an Easy Win for Macron Next Year in France

  • The scene is set for another face-off between Mr. Macron and Mrs. Le Pen next year.
  • Polls suggest that Mr. Macron will win a second term, but the margin is closer than in 2017.
  • Rising political risks could dent French equities, and widen 10-year spreads to German bunds.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Aug 2021 Did the Eurozone Survey Data Soften Midway through Q3?

  • The second Q2 GDP estimate for the EZ will confirm the advance report while we are away.
  • Detailed GDP data in Germany will show that consumers' spending rocketed in Q2.
  • We look for soft surveys for August, but we still think Q3 as a whole will be great for the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Aug 2021 Your Guide to the Somewhat Confusing July CPI in Germany

  • VAT base effects in core goods were the main driver of the July leap in German inflation.
  • The yawning gap between national and HICP services inflation will close soon; the latter will rebound.
  • We now see clear evidence of a reopening bump in hospitality prices; will it be sustained?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 Aug 2021 Are the Economic Risks from the Latest Virus Wave Still a Threat?

The spread of the Delta variant seems to be slowing, at least in the Big Four EZ economies...
...But the threat of new variants looms, and booster shots elsewhere aren't providing promising signals.
We still think GDP growth in Q3 will be faster than Q2, but uncertainty is now rising for Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Aug 2021 Is the Reflation Trade in Bonds Dead and Buried?

EZ bond yields have been dragged lower as investors have abandoned the reflation trade.
Idiosyncratic factors will weigh on bund yields in H2, but we still see room for a rise to -0.3-to-0.4% in Q4.
Energy imports, and goods demand from Eastern Europe, are weighing on Germany's trade surplus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, June

In one line: A rebound, but imports are still outpacing exports. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Aug 2021 Industry in the Core is Not Going Anywhere

German factory orders surged in June, more than reversing May's plunge ...
... But turnover data point to a weak end to Q2 for industry; we look for a 0.5% monthly fall in June.
French industry continued to tread water; even though car output rose for the first time this year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 We Remain Optimistic about the Reopening Upturn in Ser vices

The PMIs confirm that the Q2 upturn in services continued at the start of the third quarter.
Data in France and Spain suggest that hospitality came roaring back in Q2; more to come in Q3.
EZ retail sales jumped by 3.4% in Q2; growth will slow in Q3, but should remain robust.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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