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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Composite PMI

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, March 2022

 In one line: Ugly; industry will be a drag on growth in Q2 as the German powerhouse takes a hit.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, May 2022

In one line: An upside surprise, but threats still loom.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 May 2022 No Change to our SNB Forecast, Despite More Hikes from the ECB

 We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...

...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.

EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Composite PMIs, Eurozone, April

In one line: Activity picked up pace in April, will the new Russian oil ban reverse this?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 May 2022 Will the EZ Labour Market Take Stagflation in its Stride?

EZ unemployment was still falling by the end of Q1, defying the initial shock over the war in Ukraine.

The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but it won’t stall.

Discretionary spending on goods in Germany is under pressure from higher inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, March 2022

In one line: The recovery in the labour market slowed at the end of Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Apr 2022 Is this the Start of a Sustained Fall in Energy Inflation? We Think So

The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.

German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.

Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, April 2022

In one line: Eurozone economic activity picks up pace heading into Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, April 2022

In one line: A drop in manufacturing output is dragging on activity heading into Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, April 2022

In one line: French economy heads into Q2 on solid footing as services activity picks up pace.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Apr 2022 The ECB Remains on Track to Dial Down QE by Early Q3

The ECB is holding the line that QE will end at the beginning of the third quarter.

We still look for two hikes in the deposit rate this year, by 25bp in September and December.

Data today likely will show that EZ industrial production, ex-construction, rose solidly in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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