- German industrial output rebounded at the start of Q3, but the trend likely is still flat.
- Consumers' spending propelled the EZ economy in Q2; a full recovery in GDP is possible in Q3.
- We are lifting our full-year forecasts for 2021, but this is mostly book-keeping; growth is now slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Banks went into the crisis in a relatively healthy state; much better than in 2007.
- The jump in emergency loans during Covid is un- likely to be destabilizing, even if some of it turns sour.
- Stress tests show that banks can handle a jump in NPLs, and foreign risks are generally limited.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
We're raising our 2021 growth forecasts for France, mostly due to technicals linked to recent revisions.
We now think German GDP will rise by just 2.7% in 2021, but the carry-over into 2022 will be solid.
Our new Q3 forecasts are broadly in line with the consensus; all set for a spectacular quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The macro-fundamentals are starting to turn against equities, but the policy put is alive and well.
Even if EZ equity earnings rise by 40% over the next year, as analysts expect, they still aren't cheap.
Political risks in the G7 are now concentrated in Europe; next year's elections in France loom large
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of QE—signalled to be conducted at a "significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year" in Q3—until the new staff projections are released in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
We last set our outlook for the Italian economy at the end of May—see here—and in this Monitor, we take stock of what has changed since. In preview; it's good news.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Weakness in the core remained a drag on euro area manufacturing midway through Q2, amid strength elsewhere.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the Recovery and Resilience Fund, or RFF.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded at the start of Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by firmer net exports in goods; portfolio outflows are slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stung by decline in Germany, but note the upward revision to the March headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Yesterday's euro area trade data from Eurostat were alarmingly poor.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Crashing and burning, but note the revisions, again.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A decent start to Q2, considering supply-side woes in the core.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The ECB conformed to our expectations yesterday, guiding markets towards unchanged and ample accommodation through Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soft, pegged back by another sharp fall in output of cars.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A rebound, but still depressed compared to its past trend.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Held back by strong import growth, again,
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
