Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, October 2023

In one line: Not enough to convince us that net trade was a boost to GDP in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Italy Still in the Doldrums Despite Upward Revision to Q3 GDP

  • Italian GDP increased in Q3 rather than flat-lined, as the advance release had suggested...
  • ...It is still more likely to fall than rise in Q4, and we are lowering our forecasts for H1 2024.
  • BTPs are rallying, and we look for further gains; we see yields falling to just over 3% by mid 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2023

In one line: Outperforming the EZ and defying the slump in the surveys.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EZ Money Supply, EZ, October 2023

In one line: Adjusted for savings money data suggest an improving outlook for H1 next year. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Leading Indicators Suggest the Euro Should Be Stronger

  • Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials suggest the EUR is currently undervalued against the USD...
  • ...Political uncertainty measures suggest it is right where it should be, at 1.10...
  • On balance, we think EURUSD will trade between 1.10 and 1.15 for most of 2024.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, EZ, September 2023

In one line: No light at the end of the tunnel for industry yet; net trade in goods boosted GDP in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP & Employment, Eurozone, Q3

In one line: We think GDP will fall again in Q4; surveys suggest robustness in employment growth will not last. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ Stuck in the Doldrums; All Change in Q1?

  • The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirms it fell; we look for another decline in Q4 and a short recession.
  • Investor sentiment data suggest the tide will turn in Q1, in line with our forecast for a rebound in GDP.
  • Indeed, wage data suggest wage growth eased further at the start of Q4, but only marginally.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, September 2023

In one line: Confirming that net exports were a drag on GDP in Q3. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,