Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Webinar
- This week’s January inflation data will be key for the ECB’s decisions and communication in H1 2024.
- We look for a downside surprise in the EZ, but the January report is a wildcard; anything can happen.
- EZ GDP likely fell in Q4—confirming a recession— worse than the ECB predicted in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB left all its policy settings unchanged yesterday, as everyone expected it to.
- President Lagarde stuck to the line that a spring rate cut is unlikely but didn’t explicitly push back on it...
- ...Data next week will, we think, give the Bank the confidence it needs to cut rates first in March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- ECB hawks will pounce on signs from the PMI of continued upward price pressures in services...
- ...But the PMIs continue to suggest the EZ economy remains in a rut & manufacturing costs are sliding.
- January’s inflation read will be more decisive for the timing of the ECB’s first rate cut; March is our call.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Lending standards were tightened again in Q4, albeit less than in Q3; banks blamed risk perception.
- Demand for loans again fell across the board, partly reflecting the continued rise in interest rates.
- ECB doves can use the BLS to argue that financial conditions can ease, but will they?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week the ECB will continue to push back against expectations of a rate cut in the first half of 2024...
- ...But the central bank is now happy to underwrite the consensus position of a rate cut by summer.
- We still see the ECB cutting by March, as January and February HICP surprise to the downside.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The slowdown in EZ construction intensified in Q4 and won’t improve any time soon.
- A sharply wider primary income deficit stung the EZ current account surplus in November.
- EZ portfolio outflows accelerated in Q4, but the market setback in January points to a pullback in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB is not happy with market expectations for a spring rate cut but is fine with June.
- If our forecast for inflation to fall below 2% by February is right, the ECB will cut in March.
- Plunging PPI points to downside risks to services inflation, but the output price PMI is still high.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The fall in EZ residential house prices was extended in Q3, and likely again in Q4.
- In 2024, house prices should recover somewhat as demand rebounds, but not until the end of the year.
- We look for house prices to fall by 3.5% this year after a likely near-2% decline in 2023.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German GDP fell by 0.1% in 2023, which—according to Destatis—includes a 0.3% decline in Q4.
- Manufacturing in the euro area remained in recession in Q4, but net trade in goods jumped.
- We think EZ GDP fell by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, due to broad-based domestic weakness.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian industrial output fell in November, defying the otherwise decent trail of hard data for Q4.
- We are sticking to our call for a 0.2% slide in GDP, setting up a weak base for this year.
- Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will rebound this year, but the recovery will be gradual and tepid.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- New budget rules in the EU will put France, Italy and Spain on the spot, but will they be enforced?
- The Commission’s fiscal proposals leave plenty of room for exceptions and long adjustment paths.
- Retaining the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold exposes many countries to prolonged adjustment plans.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The small increase in Swiss inflation in December leaves it in line with the SNB’s target...
- ...Inflation will fall back soon, despite the VAT hike; we look for the Bank to cut its policy rate in March.
- EZ unemployment will rise, though only marginally; still-low joblessness need not deter ECB rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German manufacturing remained subdued in Q4, but net trade in goods likely soared.
- Retail sales in the euro area fell midway through Q4, due principally to weakness in Germany.
- Investor sentiment continues to signal upside risk for the EZ composite PMI at the start of 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ headline inflation will match the consensus today, but the core will undershoot expectations.
- The rebound in German inflation in December will be short-lived; the downtrend in the core continues.
- Sticky services inflation in France will soon roll over, judging by surveyed selling prices.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German jobless claims fell less than expected in December, but we doubt the trend is improving.
- Employment growth slowed midway through Q4, and momentum will wane further in Q1.
- Nominal income growth is slowing, but real wage growth is rebounding as inflation falls.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ manufacturing remained in recession in Q4, but global data point to an improvement in Q1.
- The slowdown in narrow money growth is easing, adding to upside risks for the composite PMI in Q1.
- Private sector lending growth slowed midway through Q4; it will slow further in H1 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP is likely to rebound from Q1 next year, albeit slowly; consensus expects a quicker recovery.
- Inflation will fall more sharply than the consensus or ECB expects in H1, if we are correct on January…
- ...If so, the ECB will cut rates five times next year, starting in March, earlier than consensus expects.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence is on the rise but risks to our consumption call remain to the downside.
- The EZ current account surplus climbed in October; the trend in the euro suggests it will decline soon.
- EZ construction started Q4 on a rough note, and all signs point to the struggle stretching into 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation fell sharply in November; it will rebound in December, but what will happen in January?
- Our inflation forecasts remain at odds with the ECB’s; we still see a March rate cut.
- We’re betting that inflation falling below target will prompt the ECB to focus less on wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Net exports are poised to lift GDP growth in Q4, but by how much? We look for a 0.1pp rise.
- Export growth will rebound next year, but we think imports will recover relatively more.
- We believe rising goods imports will weigh on net exports and GDP growth in 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
