Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Chartbook
- The ECB will open the door to a June rate cut this week, while emphasising the risk of sticky inflation.
- Staff projections will show a downgrade to the ECB’s headline inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
- Utility margins in the Eurozone are soaring; this will soon become a hot potato for policymakers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation edged down in February; it has been in line with the SNB’s target for eight months.
- It fell less than we expected; we are pushing out our forecast for the first SNB rate cut to June.
- The changing of the guard at the SNB in September won’t alter the outlook for monetary policy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation fell further in February, probably to 2.5%; we think core inflation dipped by 0.3pp, to 3.0%.
- Consumers’ spending in the EZ got off to a slow start in Q1, but don’t write off the recovery just yet.
- The Swiss economy defied our expectations in Q4, boosted by strong growth in domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumer inflation expectations still point to lower inflation, despite uptick in the ECB’s January survey.
- Firms’ surveyed expectations are still generally on a downtrend, and market measures have also fallen.
- We still think a downgrade in the ECB’s inflation forecasts next week will be enough for an April cut, just.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money and credit data continue to signal a rise in savings and little in the way of new lending.
- We still think rising real income growth is now lifting spending, but the rebound will be lacklustre overall.
- Consumer confidence data remains subdued in Germany and France but should bounce back soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE ECB IS DONE HIKING; EASING WILL BEGIN SOON
- ...WE STILL SEE A FIRST RATE CUT IN APRIL
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The inventory cycle in France likely bottomed out in Q4; total capital formation should rebound in H1...
- ...But surveys warn that growth in otherwise resilient services investment is now rolling over.
- A drop in auto sales will weigh on consumption in 2024, but rising real income growth will dominate.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation will fall further in February; Easter effects will then add volatility over Spring.
- The euro area composite PMI is rebounding, but Germany’s index remains stuck in the mud.
- The February PMIs pour cold water on hopes of a Q1 rebound in EZ’s moribund manufacturing sector.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Russia now accounts for just 15% of EZ gas imports, down from 45% before its invasion of Ukraine.
- Oil imports from Russia have slumped but are likely still entering Europe after being refined elsewhere.
- Non-energy trade has shrunk and will dissipate further this year, as the latest EU sanctions hit.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Negotiated wage growth in the EZ slowed slightly in Q4; it will decelerate further at the start of 2024.
- EZ construction output rebounded in December, leaving a decent carry-over for Q1.
- The Eurozone current account surplus jumped at the end of Q4 but will soon decline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Leading indicators point to significant downside risks for German construction at the start of 2024.
- The fall in real estate prices is happening amid solid growth in rents; the cap rate is soaring as a result.
- German commercial real estate is in trouble, but cap rates are now rocketing, for both retail and office.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP growth is falling behind the US; relatively sluggish productivity is part of the reason.
- The inflation shock has depressed EZ labour productivity, but it should now be rebounding.
- Our interest rate forecasts are consistent with a relative shift in the EZ inflation and policy regime.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Eurozone GDP was flat in Q4, and we doubt the picture will improve in the first quarter.
- Investment will remain under pressure in H1, but consumers’ spending should now be rebounding.
- EZ employment growth is still outpacing the surveys; unemployment is pinned at a record low.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell sharply in January, beneath our below-consensus forecast...
- ...We are sticking to our call that the SNB will first cut its key policy rate in March, by 25bp to 1.50%.
- It will likely follow this up with 75bp-worth of cuts, split between 50bp in June and 25bp in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumer prices in the EZ exhibit strong seasonality throughout the year, especially in the core.
- Core inflation is falling on all seasonally adjusted indices, but the tempo varies across methodologies.
- Seasonally adjusted price momentum is rebounding, but that shouldn’t matter for the year-over-year rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss GDP likely fell in Q4 last year; it will recover this year as real disposable income growth rebounds.
- But base effects mean GDP growth will slow to 0.7% this year, from 1.2% last year.
- Inflation will stay low, the SNB will match ECB cuts to starve off CHF appreciation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s economy is in a cyclical rut; it remains to be seen whether its problems are more structural.
- Nominal GDP in Germany has been soaring, but higher prices have compressed growth in real terms.
- Many politicians in Germany want to tighten fiscal policy, but will the economy allow it?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP in Spain grew by 2.5% last year, more than in any of the other major EZ economies.
- This year, quarter-to-quarter growth will remain solid, such that GDP rises by 2%.
- German industrial orders soared in December but they were skewed by major orders mainly in aircraft.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB’s policy rate is 100-to-150bp too tight; it will align with two-year yields by the end of the year.
- We see near-term downside risk to Bund yields but then look for bear-steepening in H2.
- Our forecasts for the bond markets assume a soft landing in the economy; what if we’re wrong?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Lingering votes to hike Bank Rate distract from most members’ endorsement of rate cuts this year...
- ...Two-year-ahead inflation is forecast nearer 2% under market rates than constant rates; upside skew has gone.
- We still expect the first 25bp cut to come in May, but the risks remain tilted towards a later commencement.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
