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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, February 2024

In one line: Industry was a bigger drag on Italian Q1 GDP than we previously thought.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, February 2024

In one line:  Net trade is still likely to have been a drag one growth in Q1. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Which HICP components lead Eurozone wage growth?

  • EZ compensation-per-employee growth slowed in Q1, but what about negotiated wages?
  • The HICP components most correlated with wage growth point to a significant slowdown in H1 2024.
  • The Q1 bank lending survey is not the slam dunk for ECB doves that many seem to believe.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss CPI implies more SNB cuts; EZ house prices fell in Q4

  • The fall in Swiss inflation in March solidifies our view that more SNB rate cuts are on the way this year.
  • EZ house prices fell in Q4 and were down by 1.1% in 2023 overall; we look for another 1% drop this year.
  • The PMI adds to the evidence that Spain’s economic outperformance continued in Q1; we concur.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation likely fell to just over 2% in March; what now, ECB?

  • The drop in German inflation cements the outlook for a below-consensus EZ inflation report today.
  • Why wouldn’t the ECB cut this month if inflation hit 2.2% in March? We can’t see why not either.
  • Weakness in France and Germany is still holding back momentum in EZ manufacturing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, Feb; ISTAT Confidence, Italy, Mar & Unemployment, Germany, Mar

In one line:  Improvement in money supply continues; Italian business confidence rises & German unemployment will climb further. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ESI, EZ, March 2024

In one line: Consistent with a rise in EZ GDP this quarter.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ CPI unlikely to have risen as much as Spanish CPI in March

  • Spanish inflation rose 0.4pp to 3.2% in March, less than we expected...
  • ...We are revising down our forecast for the Eurozone headline; it likely rose just 0.1pp to 2.7% in March.
  • Spanish CPI is further along than the EZ headline, suggesting EZ inflation will rise further before it falls.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, April

In one line: Pointing to a recovery in consumption, albeit a tepid one.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor How will the ECB deal with inflationary fiscal tightening?

  • The ECB faces a unique challenge in thinking about fiscal policy; fiscal tightening is now lifting inflation.
  • We estimate that the unwinding of fiscal stimulus is now boosting EZ headline inflation by 0.4pp...
  • ...In a fight for every percentage point to get inflation to target, this could prevent ECB rate cuts.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q1 2024

In one line:  The SNB beats the ECB to the punch on rate cuts. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor SNB steps into spring with a policy rate cut

  • The SNB cut interest rates, beating other major DM central banks to the punch on easing policy. 
  • More easing is likely over the coming year; we look for 75bp of further cuts by December. 
  • The risks are to fewer cuts; the SNB sees inflation in line with its price-stability mandate out to 2026.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence