Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Still consistent with slight slowdown in growth in Q2.
In one line: Stronger than the increase in goods spending in France.
A TENSE MONTH OF EU-US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS LIES AHEAD...
- ...WE STILL SEE UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON GROWTH
- Early evidence on Q2 points to upside risk to our forecasts for Spain and Italy…
- ...This reinforces our view that both will outperform France and Germany again.
- Southern Europe’s outperformance in H2 will be even bigger than we expect if US tariff hikes are cut.
- The ECB’s measure of consumer inflation expectations in one year’s time rose again in April.
- Other measures are stable, while various data point to general economic weakness…
- ...So, we reiterate our call for the ECB to cut twice more this year, in June and July.
In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock.
In one line: Falling energy consumption will weigh on spending in Q2.
In one line: The gift that keeps on giving to ECB doves.
In one line: Still improving.
In one line: Downtrend continues as unemployment fears near Covid-time peak.
In one line: Boosted by investment and consumption.
- Weak French inflation data put ECB doves in the driving seat ahead of next week’s May EZ HICP.
- German GfK consumer confidence and the ESI were robust midway through Q2; what tariff shock?
- EZ wage growth slowed sharply at the start of 2025; we doubt it will fall much further.
- A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
- The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
- The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
- A second straight fall in the EZ composite PMI in May points to downside risk for GDP in Q2.
- The INSEE and PMI suggest services are weakening, despite tight labour markets and little hit from tariffs.
- Inflation pressures are unwinding, so we are maintaining our call for further ECB easing.
- The EC’s new economic forecasts see a ‘Goldilocks’ boom next year; the economy won’t be that lucky.
- We see stronger growth in Germany than the EC next year, but weaker in France and Spain.
- The EC’s forecast for EZ inflation in 2026, at 1.7%, rests on too dovish energy and core goods forecasts.
- EZ construction output is slowing after a strong finish to 2024, but leading indicators are improving.
- The EZ current account surplus soared in March, reflecting tariff front-running in goods.
- Portfolio outflows fell sharply in March, and likely crashed outright in April.
In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts?
- EZ headline inflation is about to fall to 2%, helping to get further ECB easing over the line, but how much?
- Survey data continue to signal significant upside risk to food inflation; energy inflation will rebound too.
- Services inflation will drop sharply in May but is set to be sticky around 3%.
In one line: A new record high, thanks to tariff front-running by US firms.
