Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
- It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
- The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.
In one line: Inflation has further to fall, but SNB easing is done.
In one line: Too hot for a December cut, but dovish data in food and core goods.
In one line: Steady near record lows.
- EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
- Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
- Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.
- Italian GDP was held back in Q3 by another drop in inventories; these should rebound next year…
- ...Growth will pick up in 2026 as the outlook for net trade is also now brightening.
- In Switzerland, GDP will bounce back in Q4 from the drop in Q3, but growth will slow next year.
In one line: Upside risk to German core inflation.
In one line: Q4 will be better.
In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.
In one line: Downside risk to EZ core inflation, relative to our forecast.
In one line: Spanish households' spending spree is coming to an end.
In one line: Plateauing after strong growth earlier in the year.
- A hawkish German HICP keeps our forecast for Eurozone headline inflation at 2.2% for November…
- …but the details in Friday’s early EZ inflation numbers, however, tilt dovish, especially for the core.
- EZ retail sales likely had a slow start to Q4, due to weakness in Spain and Germany.
In one line: Another survey suggesting ECB easing is over.
In one line: Consistent with faster EZ GDP growth.
In one line: Decent headline, but mixed details.
- The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy.
- The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data.
- It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.
LITTLE IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT...
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
In one line: Stabilising, but downside risks loom.
