EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Exports to the US rebounding; deficit with China widening.

10 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss GDP fell in Q3 and the economy is now likely in recession

• Swiss GDP is likely to have fallen outright in Q3, as US trade tariffs were hiked and unemployment rose.
• The ECB wage tracker implies EZ wage growth eased in Q3 and will slow further out to mid-2026.
• The ECB is not about to end QT, like the Fed; we expect a continued steady run-off, for now.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Q4 will be better, we think.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: Terrible, but also a terrible leading indicator.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, September 2025

In one line: Up less in Q3 than Q2.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Underwhelming, but we see further gains in early Q4.

7 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ consumption growth decent in Q3; German industry underwhelms

•  EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2…. 
• ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4. 
• Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, September 2025

In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, September 2025

In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?

6 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Surveys suggest German industry is doing fine, but is it?

• German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat. 
• Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge. 
• Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.

October 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

HOPES OF A Q4 RATE CUT DRIFTING OUT OF REACH

• …AS GROWTH AND INFLATION OVERSHOOT ECB EXPECTATIONS

5 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're beefing up our inflation models with more details

• We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors. 
• We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month. 
• Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.

4 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Sub-zero Swiss inflation the name of the game until H2 2026

• Swiss inflation eased to within touching distance of 0%, the bottom of the SNB’s inflation target range. 
• We look for further declines, in contrast to the SNB’s forecast for inflation to rise. 
• Still, the SNB will hold off from further easing this year and probably also next year.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2025

In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole.