4 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Sub-zero Swiss inflation the name of the game until H2 2026

• Swiss inflation eased to within touching distance of 0%, the bottom of the SNB’s inflation target range. 
• We look for further declines, in contrast to the SNB’s forecast for inflation to rise. 
• Still, the SNB will hold off from further easing this year and probably also next year.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2025

In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Pulled down by food inflation. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Q3 GDP, unemployment and ESI, Eurozone

In one line: Nothing here for ECB doves.

EZ Datanote: Q3 GDP, State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2025

In one line: Not much of a rebound but faster growth is on the way.

3 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor October inflation kicks Q4 rate-cut hopes further into the long grass

• Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
• Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
• Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q3

In one line: Allez! 

31 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB holds rates steady as inflation and GDP look resilient

• The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance. 
• Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today. 
• EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP & Retail Sales, Spain, Q3 2025

In one line: Growth slows but Spain still outperforming.

EZ Datanote: ECB BLS, EZ, Q3 2025

In one line: Lending standards tightened again, but demand for loans is still rising, just.

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence & ECB CES, Oct/Sep 2025

In one line: Italian GDP growth will pick up in Q4; Inflation expectations stabilising at a high level.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, November

In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again. 

29 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor BLS remains weak, but surveys point to strength in Italy in early Q4

• The ECB BLS showed banks tightened lending standards in Q3, boding ill for capex and spending… 
• ...But these downbeat messages can safely be ignored, given other survey data. 
• The first business survey for Italy for October suggests growth there is picking up, as in Germany.