EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, June 2025

In one line: A small increase in both June and Q2 overall.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Where is the light at the end of the tunnel?

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, June 2025

In one line: No boost from Airbus orders?

7 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ industry probably had a decent end to Q2; H2 will be tough

• Italian industrial output edged up in June, while German turnover figures point to a rise there too. 
• EZ industry fared well in Q2, a further correction in Irish production permitting. 
• EZ retail sales recorded a decent June and suggest goods spending supported GDP in Q2.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, June 2025

In one line: Decent, and Q3 looks set to be good too.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, June 2025

In one line: Soaring as transport and refineries kick into gear

6 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Italy and Spain starting Q3 on a solid footing, according to PMIs

• The EZ PMI was revised down, largely due to a downward revision to France’s already-weak index. 
• Spain’s and Italy’s composite PMIs are much higher than those of France and Germany. 
• French industrial production soared in June, but mainly on the back of a one-off in transport.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Investors give EU-US trade deal a thumbs down.

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Ugly all round.  

5 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Hawkish inflation read in Switzerland; is a recession ahead?

• Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
• ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs. 
• We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes. 

4 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our call for a September rate cut hanging in the balance

• The July HICP has raised the bar significantly for a September ECB rate cut…
• …But we won’t give up on our call until we see inflation data for August.
• A fall in core inflation, volatile markets, and US economic fragility could still pull a cut over the line.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, July 2025

In one line: EZ inflation in July was not the dovish slam dunk we were expecting.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a record low. 

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.

EZ Datanote: Advance inflation, France, July

In one line: No change; we still see the EZ HICP at 1.8% y/y.

1 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation in July not as decisively dovish as we were expecting

• HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
• The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
• EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP/ESI, EZ, Q2 2025/July 2025

In one line: EZ GDP growth slows from tariff front-running boost in Q1. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Italy & Germany, Q2 2025

In one line: German and Italian GDP both fall by 0.1% q/q; available data now point to 0.1% increase in EZ GDP.