Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- Real rates are still rising sharply in the Eurozone; it makes sense for the ECB to cut rates soon.
- Bonds are not priced for the ECB deposit rate to stay at 4%; if they were, yields would be a lot higher.
- What are the ECB’s assumptions for rates underlying its inflation forecasts? Answers on a postcard…
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ core inflation fell further in April; the June rate cut looks safe, but July’s is hanging in the balance.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1, in line with our forecast; country data suggest net trade was the main boost.
- Southern economies did the heavy lifting, again, and likely will continue to outperform this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early April HICP data in Spain and Germany confirm that energy inflation rose, while core inflation dipped.
- We’re lowering our EZ headline inflation forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.4%; the core likely fell by 0.4pp, to 2.5%.
- The Irish economy sprang back to life in Q1; we still look for EZ GDP to have risen by 0.3% in the quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for agreeable data this week; we see upside risk to GDP growth, and downward to core inflation.
- Money data point to a lift-off in GDP growth over the coming quarters, adjusted for the savings shift...
- ...But lending figures suggest we are right to think investment will remain depressed in H1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A pick-up in services production boosted French growth in Q1; Q2 is set for further improvement, just.
- Forecast upgrades in Germany and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1.
- Political uncertainty is increasing in Spain, as the Prime Minister mulls resignation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We’re lifting our forecast for German Q1 GDP growth, by 0.2pp to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- German manufacturing and services output are on the mend, while retail sales are still stuck in the mud.
- Construction was boosted by mild weather in Q1; output will fall sharply in the second quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rise in the EZ composite PMI suggests we should expect a pick up in GDP growth in Q2.
- Higher selling price expectations won’t prevent an ECB cut in June; they still point to lower inflation.
- The SNB’s tweak to minimum reserve requirements is not as big a deal as markets think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The jump in US rate expectations is not needed to explain the similar repricing in EZ expectations.
- We expect bond yields in Germany to drift lower in the near term as the ECB starts cutting rates...
- ...But we still see an increase next year as the policy rate settles above neutral and inflation risks return.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone is still an incomplete currency union, but we think it will carry on regardless.
- The pandemic and war in Ukraine show that inflation is possible even in a rapidly aging economy.
- Fiscal activism, inflation and higher interest rates are all here to stay in the EZ, for the foreseeable future.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ construction rose in February, but less so than implied by the advance data; seasonals to blame?
- Either way, construction was a boost to EZ GDP in Q1, and it suggests risks are tilted to the upside.
- The EZ current account surplus dipped in February and will fall further; portfolio inflows remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rising energy inflation is a threat to the June rate cut, but we think falling core inflation will do the trick.
- The early Easter sustained services inflation in March, due to a leap in airfares; it will fall in April.
- Our forecast for a July rate cut is now hanging by a thread; we’ll update our view with the April HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spain was again the star performer in Q1; we look for GDP to have risen by 0.6% quarter-to-quarter.
- Italy was close behind, faring better than France and Germany, as construction investment rose again.
- Growth should rise in Spain and Italy later this year, but risks are to the downside, especially in Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We see little reason why the ECB should worry about the euro if it has to cut rates before the Fed.
- Our Nowcast model now points to EZ GDP rising by 0.2% in Q1, despite soft industrial production data.
- A volatile Middle East could divert attention away from Ukraine’s war with Russia; Mr. Putin knows this.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our preliminary forecasts for France and Germany point to downside risks to EZ core inflation in April.
- A VAT hike on gas in Germany and higher oil prices are near-term upside risks to energy inflation.
- Italy will struggle to shrink its budget deficit to 3% any time soon; will the EU take note?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB stood pat yesterday but sent a clear signal of a first rate cut at its next meeting, on June 6.
- We expect the Bank to cut rates by 25bp in June, and at each of the next three meetings.
- Markets have pared back expectations of ECB cuts after the hot US CPI data; that is a mistake.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A lot can still go wrong in the EZ economy, but the data suggest that GDP growth firmed in Q1.
- Early data imply that EZ services production rebounded strongly in the first quarter.
- Mild weather boosted construction in Q1, and manufacturing, ex-Ireland, improved too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ compensation-per-employee growth slowed in Q1, but what about negotiated wages?
- The HICP components most correlated with wage growth point to a significant slowdown in H1 2024.
- The Q1 bank lending survey is not the slam dunk for ECB doves that many seem to believe.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week’s ECB meeting will be a dovish hold; Ms. Lagarde will lay the foundation for a June cut.
- The consensus and markets see the ECB’s policy rate falling below 2.5% in 2025; we beg to differ.
- Rising production in industry and services points to upside risks to German GDP growth in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely jumped in February but fell over Q1 as a whole.
- Retail sales data point to a subdued EZ consumer in Q1, but the services numbers will look better.
- Our Nowcast model points to EZ GDP stagnating in Q1, but it is too downbeat; a 0.2% rise is more likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The fall in Swiss inflation in March solidifies our view that more SNB rate cuts are on the way this year.
- EZ house prices fell in Q4 and were down by 1.1% in 2023 overall; we look for another 1% drop this year.
- The PMI adds to the evidence that Spain’s economic outperformance continued in Q1; we concur.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
