EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line:  A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks. 

3 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Waiting for President Trump to reveal his hand on tariffs

• The euro area economy comes into ‘Liberation Day’ in a relatively good position. 
• A 25% blanket tariff on EZ exports to the US would bring down our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4pp. 
• EU retaliation could raise EZ core goods inflation, but it depends on the size and scope of import tariffs.

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Our PM composite PMI points to another solid increase in GDP in Q1.

2 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Data signal an ECB pause in April, 'Liberation Day' permitting

• We still think the data support the idea of an ECB pause in April, but what will happen on tariffs today? 
• EZ core inflation fell nicely in March, but it will snap back in April as Easter effects reverse. 
• Services activity in Switzerland is coming off the boil at the start of the year.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, March 2025

In one line: We now see the March EZ HICP up by 0.7% m/m, and by 2.2% y/y.

1 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Inflation in the Eurozone likely fell slightly in March, by 0.1pp to 2.2%

• We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively. 
• Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
• German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?