Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor
- Headline and core inflation remain on track to support a 25bp ECB rate cut by September.
- The key difference between our and the ECB’s latest forecast is that we see inflation rebounding in Q4.
- The outlook for the ECB is bi-modal; the Bank will stay at 2.0% in 2026 if it holds fire in September.
- The EZ goods trade surplus rose in May, but only because imports fell further than exports.
- Our Nowcast model points to upside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth, but it excludes net trade.
- We will update our Q2 growth forecasts on Friday with the EZ construction data for May.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone slowed in Q2 after a breakneck Q1; what awaits in Q3?
- Leading indicators for manufacturing are mixed; the output PMI has been the best so far this year.
- A reversal of tariff front-running will weigh on output in H2, regardless of what tariffs the EU ends up with.
- A 30% US tariff on EU exports would send the EZ economy into recession in the second half of 2025.
- Markets don’t believe Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, but a US-EU escalation cycle is still a big near-term risk.
- The ECB will hold fire in July unless it is absolutely certain a 30% tariff is coming over the summer.
- Isabel Schnabel draws another line in the sand for the ECB’s policy rate to stay at 2.0%…
- …but we still think she and other hawks will lose out as dovish data tee up a 25bp cut in September.
- Fair value models point to Bund yields at 2.5%, but fiscal policy and Dutch pension selling say otherwise.
- A third of Swiss pharma exports go to the US; a 200% tariff could pull GDP down 4% at the extreme.
- Offsetting factors remain and, in the near term, tariff front-running poses upside risks to our forecasts.
- The maximum direct hit to EZ GDP of a 200% US tariff on pharma is 1%.
- Eurozone house prices rose at their fastest pace in four years in the first quarter…
- ...Advance national data suggest a slowdown in price growth in Q2, but we doubt it…
- ...Our new housing model points to an acceleration in house price growth this year and next.
- Net exports warn of a downside surprise in German Q2 GDP; we look for zero growth.
- Manufacturing and services are upside risks to Q2 growth in Germany; construction was a drag.
- The upturn in real M1 growth points to accelerating German GDP growth from early 2026 onwards.
- The looming deadline for the increase in “reciprocal” tariffs has been delayed again, now to August 1.
- The upside surprise in German industrial output in May points to a better EZ print than we expected.
- EZ services had a rough start to Q2, but surveys have improved and point to a better Q2 than Q1.
- Tariffs will likely dominate this week; will Mr. Trump stick or twist in the negotiations with the EU?
- The near-term outlook for German manufacturing is better than what is implied by factory orders in May.
- EZ industrial production likely fell in May, reversing the jump in late Q1, ahead of US tariffs.
- Headline inflation in Switzerland rose above zero in June, by 0.2pp to 0.1%.
- It will fall back again in July, to zero, where we expect it to hold steady until Q4.
- Our forecasts remain well below the SNB’s; another rate cut in September, to -0.25%, is still likely.
- A glass-half-full perspective indicates that the stars are aligned for a “beautiful releveraging” in the EZ.
- The EZ economy is completing a soft landing, an important prerequisite for a beautiful releveraging.
- Germany leading from the front is a key condition for a growth-supporting leverage cycle in the Eurozone.
- Headline inflation edged up to the ECB’s 2% target in June, as energy deflation unwound a touch.
- Lower energy and core inflation will pull the rate down to 1.8% in July, where it will stay in August.
- This further drop in inflation over the summer should be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.
- Total HICP inflation prints for the Big Four suggest EZ headline inflation edged up to 2.0% in June.
- The ECB strategy review suggests the central bank is doing the right thing with the right tools; go figure!
- Money data still point to upside risks to GDP, but don’t capture what is happening in net trade.
- French and Spanish headline inflation rose in June, pointing to upside risk to our EZ call.
- We are sticking to our forecast for an increase in the EZ headline to 2.0% from 1.9%.
- That marks a small rise, which need not worry the ECB, especially given stable inflation expectations.
- Early national data suggest the fall in EZ consumer confidence in June was focused outside the big two.
- The details indicate that risks to spending in Q2 are still to the downside in France and Germany.
- Indeed figures show slowing wage growth in Italy in May, but a pick-up in France and Spain.
- Falling oil prices and a strong euro are playing into the hands of ECB doves, for now.
- Services inflation is a key upside risk in the June HICP, but we still see core inflation at 2% by August.
- Fiscal details and a US-EU trade deal could swing the September meeting in favour of ECB hawks.
- German business surveys are on the rise, but the hard data are not; at least, not yet…
- ...The cabinet approved the 2025 supplementary budget; parliament must do likewise by September.
- The rise in public spending and capex will feed through only in Q4 or, more likely, from 2026.
- The EZ PMI held steady in June, and averaged broadly the same in Q2 as in Q1…
- ...But EZ GDP will not repeat its 0.6% growth in Q1; we look for GDP to stagnate this quarter.
- Demand is recovering but, once tariff front-running ends, will likely correct; price pressures are easing.
- A firm commitment from Germany to spend 5% of GDP on defence would be a rug-pull for Bunds.
- Rising investor sentiment and calmness on the trade front point to decent June survey data this week.
- Early-Q2 data indicate upside risk to GDP growth in France, but we still look for just 0.1% q/q.
