September 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

INFLATION ABOVE 2% WILL KEEP THE ECB ON HOLD IN Q4

…THE EURO AND ENERGY PRICES ALLOWING

3 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation is low and set to fall, but the SNB will ignore it

• Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026. 
• The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term… 
• ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.

2 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Dovish decimals in the EZ HICP hide an overall hawkish report

• Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish. 
• We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December. 
• We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.

1 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor All set for a slight upside surprise in the EZ HICP today

• A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%. 
• We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data. 
• German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued.