Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Global
- The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier.
- German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services.
- We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.
- The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline.
- The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output.
- ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.
- EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
- We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17.
- If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda.
- It will be a close call but we see more reasons for the SNB to cut its key policy rate next week than to hold.
- Inflation is low and set to fall, while other tools will not be as effective in fighting deflationary pressures.
- We look for the Swiss central bank to cut by 25bp to -0.25%, leaving it the lowest policy rate in the world.
- We think a rebound in inflation will now close the window on further monetary policy easing.
- Risks are asymmetric, however; the ECB will either cut or hold in the next three-to-six months.
- A near-term downside surprise in core inflation and further euro strength will prompt doves to pounce.
- Our fair-value model for bunds points to little near-term upside to yields, due to falling US rates.
- We estimate that fiscal stimulus in Germany will add around 30bp to bund yields between now and 2027.
- Overall, we see a slow rise in bund yields to 3% by 2027, implying limited near-term upside.
- The Eurozone’s nominal goods trade surplus rose at the start of Q3, as imports fell further than exports.
- The bloc’s trade surplus with the US is now half what it was before the Trump administration took power.
- Net trade in goods will likely have a neutral impact on Q3 GDP, despite the increase in US tariffs in August.
- The ECB stands pat, despite lowering its headline and core inflation forecast for 2027; why?
- A more balanced growth outlook and a relatively high neutral rate mean the ECB is happy, for now.
- Has the bar for easing been lifted or is the risk of a Q4 cut now higher? It could be both, actually.
- Industrial production fell in Spain in July, though less than in France, while it rose in Italy and Germany.
- EZ industry likely eked out some growth at the start of Q3 and we look for a better Q3 than Q2.
- Services production fell in June, however, and surveys point to further weakness in Q3.
- A cyclical rise in tax revenues provides an incentive for political brinkmanship to continue in France.
- Industrial output signals upside risk to investment but how will consumers respond to falling incomes?
- Growth in France will drop to the bottom of the pile of the major four economies next year.
- The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months.
- The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening.
- Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes.
- Swiss inflation held steady at first glance, but the details are dovish.
- Leading indicators point to a gradual fall in inflation out to year-end, in contrast to the SNB’s forecasts.
- It’s a close call, but we think the risks to the outlook tip the balance towards a final rate cut this month.
- The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
- We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
- The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving.
- The number of people out of work dropped by the most in over three years in July…
- ...As a result, the EZ unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in July and is likely to have held steady in August.
- Labour-market data provide little ammunition for ECB doves in their fight for another rate cut.
- The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected…
- ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August.
- Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.
- Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose.
- Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs.
- For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
