- Net exports are poised to lift GDP growth in Q4, but by how much? We look for a 0.1pp rise.
- Export growth will rebound next year, but we think imports will recover relatively more.
- We believe rising goods imports will weigh on net exports and GDP growth in 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German firms will be happy to say Goodbye to 2023!
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rapidly falling inflation and recessionary PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: If Mr. Powell is Santa, Ms. Lagarde is the Grinch.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Few signs of a shift in the guidance on rates, yet. QT will accelerate in H2-24.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A clear dovish shift; rate cuts are next.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB lowered its inflation forecast in December; they will come down further in March, by a lot.
- Ms. Lagarde pushed back against our forecast for a March cut, but we think she’ll come around.
- The SNB stands pat, but sends a clear signal that it is now done raising rates; will it cut in March?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German politicians agreed to cut spending to stick to the constitutional debt brake...
- ...But it looks like a stop-gap solution to us, and fractures within the coalition will likely widen from here.
- EU fiscal rules return next year; in what form remains to be seen, but they will be laxer than before.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Exaggerated by an Irish drop, but still not good news.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German manufacturing faces a host of challenges, but the country isn’t de-industrialising, yet.
- Politics are at odds with economic objectives in Germany; the latter will drive the former, eventually.
- Employment and investment in machinery are the key manufacturing variables to watch in 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BTP-Bund spread is currently around 175bp, but we think it will fall to 100bp by end-2024...
- ..In line with the current spread between Spanish government-bond yields and Bund yields...
- ...Faster QT than we anticipate risks preventing the spread from falling to 100bp.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A big decline; base effects in energy point to a snap-back in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hit by falling inventories; productivity fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Confirming that output fell in each of the big four in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough to convince us that net trade was a boost to GDP in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still struggling at the start of Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
