EZ Datanote: Money Supply & ECB Inflation Expectations, March 2025

In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q1 2025 & Advance Inflation, Spain, April 2025

In one line: Growth slowed but remained solid; Inflation comes in below expectations.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, May 2025

In one line: What tariff shock?

30 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spanish GDP growth has further to slow after easing in Q1

• Spanish growth slowed in Q1 but still comfortably outperformed growth in the rest of the big four. 
• The SNB is easing policy without cutting rates, signalling a desire to steer clear of negative rates. 
• Money and credit data remain positive on outlook for the EZ economy but tariffs still threaten. 

29 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Where are the Eurozone's key asset prices heading this year?

• Market expectations for the ECB’s deposit rate to stay below 2.0% next year are a sitting duck. 
• Bunds are fairly valued at 2.5%; fiscal policy poses upside risk, but trade wars pull in the other direction. 
• EURUSD is overshooting our models; EZ equities are set to struggle for a while longer.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, March 2025

In one line: In line with our view that consumer spending growth is now slowing.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, April

In one line: French industry intends to make hay while the sun is still shining.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, April 2025

In one line: Lifted by tariff front-running, still pointing to downside risks to growth. 

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, April

In one line: Resilient, but labour market prospects remain difficult.

EZ Datanote: Trade & construction, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Don’t show Donald Trump the trade charts; Construction down but still defied surveys in Q1

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: Trade wars are not good for firm morale.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, April 2025

In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.

25 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Near-real-time data paint an encouraging picture for early Q2

• Most near-real-time consumers’ spending indicators suggest it is holding up well in April. 
• The trade war also hasn’t hit job postings, while Google searches for ‘unemployment’ are down. 
• Leading indicators on production, meanwhile, reflect greater activity, boosted by tariff front-running.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, April 2025

In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.

24 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ-US trade surplus jumps

• Soft April PMIs signal downside risk to our Q2 GDP call, but we still think tariff front-running will help. 
• Demand for services is retreating, confirming that trade uncertainty is weighing on domestic demand. 
• Manufacturing is holding the fort for now, with new orders recovering thanks to tariff front-running.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: EZ consumers didn’t like Trump’s tariff announcements.

23 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor First post-tariff economic data today likely to come in weak

• We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit. 
• The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
• Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, April 2025

In one line: Easing, as economic uncertainty rises.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, April & Industrial Production, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Tariffs hit investor sentiment hard; industrial production will feel the tariff burn but not until later in the year probably.