EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Rebounding as expected; will global trade war hurt consumers? 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line:  Plunging, reflecting market rout. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, February

In one line: German industry likely had a great Q1, but what awaits in Q2? 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line:  Up despite being held back by German weakness. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, February 2025

In one line: Solid but unlikely to last.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, February 2025

In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Factory Orders, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Growth and the surveys were picking up, before Mr. Trump’s tariff hammer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor US tariff hammer falls; what next in the EZ and Switzerland?

• Look through the noise to see a relatively modest US tariff package for the EU, all things considered. 
• An ECB rate cut later this month is now fully priced in, but we still think the Bank will hold fire. 
• The SNB can hold off from further rate cuts for now, despite the likely hit to growth from the US tariff hike.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line:  A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Waiting for President Trump to reveal his hand on tariffs

• The euro area economy comes into ‘Liberation Day’ in a relatively good position. 
• A 25% blanket tariff on EZ exports to the US would bring down our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4pp. 
• EU retaliation could raise EZ core goods inflation, but it depends on the size and scope of import tariffs.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Our PM composite PMI points to another solid increase in GDP in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Data signal an ECB pause in April, 'Liberation Day' permitting

• We still think the data support the idea of an ECB pause in April, but what will happen on tariffs today? 
• EZ core inflation fell nicely in March, but it will snap back in April as Easter effects reverse. 
• Services activity in Switzerland is coming off the boil at the start of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, March 2025

In one line: We now see the March EZ HICP up by 0.7% m/m, and by 2.2% y/y.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor Inflation in the Eurozone likely fell slightly in March, by 0.1pp to 2.2%

• We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively. 
• Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
• German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, March 2025

In one line: Headline in line with consensus; core looks strong considering Easter effects. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Great, but leading indicators point to a slowdown.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ESI, EZ, March 2025

In one line: Still averaged higher in Q1 than Q4.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, March 2025

In one line: Business sentiment eases. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone