Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor
- EZ inflation shifted dovishly in December, setting up a bigger drop in Q1 than the ECB expected…
- …The ECB prefers to sit out near-term volatility in inflation; that preference will be tested in Q1.
- German retail sales growth likely improved slightly over Q4, despite the fall in November.
In one line: Still very dovish.
- Risks have swung to a downside surprise in today’s EZ HICP, and the ECB’s forecasts being too hawkish.
- Markets are currently pricing in almost no chance of a further rate cut in H1; that will change soon.
- The EZ PMI is holding on for a gain over Q4, but the direction of travel across the quarter is downward.
- We look for an upside surprise in this week’s EZ December inflation data, but all eyes are now on Q1.
- Switzerland likely fell into deflation in December, but the SNB remains poised to hold rates steady in Q1.
- We think EZ retail sales beat the consensus in November, but manufacturing likely weakened.
In one line: Dire straits in manufacturing, but big improvement in services.
- EZ consumer confidence dipped at year-end, but consumers’ spending should hold up anyway.
- Risks are balanced; inflation in items bought regularly is rising, but the saving rate remains high.
- EZ current account figures show services exports started Q4 on a weak footing, the same as goods.
In one line: Little holiday cheer for EZ households at year-end.
In one line: Consistent with a pick up in GDP growth in Q4.
In one line: Little cheer for German consumers at turn of the year.
In one line: Still no hint to future rate path.
In one line: On hold, chances of further easing still slim to none.
In one line: EZ construction likely escaped recession in Q4.
In one line: Strong but can we trust it?
In one line: Revised down, the ECB will still stand pat tomorrow.
- The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% for the third straight meeting yesterday, as widely expected.
- Its new forecasts, showing growth at potential and inflation at target, suggest no further easing.
- The next rate move will likely be up, in 2027; we see two 25bp hikes, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%.
In one line: Down, mirroring fall in PMI.
In one line: Down but still one for the ECB hawks.
- EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up.
- It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today.
- Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will still be better than Q3.
