Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor
In one line: Banks tighten lending standards for firms & demand for credit eases again even before the shock of “Liberation Day".
- Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices.
- Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind.
- Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.
In one line: Soft, but selling prices point to upside risks for the core.
- Banks tightened lending standards less in Q1 than in Q4, but were already worried about tariffs in March…
- ...They expect to tighten lending standards further, while demand for loans among firms fell.
- We revise up our Swiss GDP forecasts, on the back of the 90-day pause to tariff hikes.
- Re-routing could lead to a bigger EZ trade surplus with the US, increasing the risk of higher US tariffs…
- ...One of the ways to stem the flow would be for the EU to hike its tariffs on China; it prefers not to.
- The EU is at great risk of being pulled into the US-Sino trade war, whether it wants to or not.
In one line: Before the tariff shock; what happens next?
In one line: Industry still supported Italian GDP in Q1.
- The 90-day delay to US tariffs, excluding China, is a stay of execution only; uncertainty remains high.
- Italian Prime Minister Meloni is the first EU leader to announce support to exporters hit by US tariff hikes.
- Italian public debt issuance will remain high this year, keeping BTP yields elevated.
- A fall in investment will be the main driver of the incoming recession in the Eurozone.
- Germany will bear the brunt of the slowdown, with a 0.6% fall in GDP across Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and trade diversion are the main upside risks to growth relative to our new baseline.
- Slower growth, coupled with a stronger CHF and lower oil prices, will keep Swiss inflation down.
- The SNB is likely to cut once more; we now expect the easing cycle to end in June.
- EZ house prices rose 4.2% last year and will increase again this year, as lower interest rates fuel demand.
- The EZ is now likely entering a technical recession; the ECB will cut its deposit rate to 2.00% by June.
- Markets are pricing-in too dovish an outcome for the ECB; the bank will struggle to push rates below 2%.
- The economy is facing the trade shock in decent shape and fiscal stimulus still pose upside risks.
In one line: Rebounding as expected; will global trade war hurt consumers?
In one line: Plunging, reflecting market rout.
In one line: German industry likely had a great Q1, but what awaits in Q2?
In one line: Up despite being held back by German weakness.
In one line: Solid but unlikely to last.
In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.
In one line: Growth and the surveys were picking up, before Mr. Trump’s tariff hammer.
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
- Look through the noise to see a relatively modest US tariff package for the EU, all things considered.
- An ECB rate cut later this month is now fully priced in, but we still think the Bank will hold fire.
- The SNB can hold off from further rate cuts for now, despite the likely hit to growth from the US tariff hike.
