EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes. 

4 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're turning bullish on Italy; GDP will rebound in H2

• The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
• We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
• The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving. 

2 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ unemployment rate still pinned at a record low

• The number of people out of work dropped by the most in over three years in July… 
• ...As a result, the EZ unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in July and is likely to have held steady in August. 
• Labour-market data provide little ammunition for ECB doves in their fight for another rate cut.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Down to a record low. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Hinting at a fall in Q3. 

EZ Datanote: ESI, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Unwelcome rise in services selling price expectations.

EZ Datanote: EZ Money Supply & ISTAT, Jul/Aug 2025

In one line: Steady, and solid, growth in EZ money supply.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q2

In one line: Stung by crash in net trade. 

August 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

EZ ECONOMY SLOWS AS TARIFF HIKES START TO BITE…

• …BUT OUR CALL FOR A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT IS NOW ON LIFE SUPPORT

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, September

In one line: Not pretty.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, August 2025

In one line: Grim, and little scope for near-term improvement.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, August 2025

In one line: Still pointing to downside risks. 

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q2 2025

In one line: Germany fared worse than initially expected in Q2.  

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Down further below its long-run average. 

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Down again but up over Q2 still.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders. 

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, August 2025

In one line: Up, but output is still falling.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, August 2025

In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.  

22 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ activity expanded in mid-Q3, despite higher US tariffs

• The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected… 
• ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August. 
• Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September.