Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Global Weekly Monitor
- The EZ construction PMI rose in April, on the back of a recovery in new orders in Germany.
- Construction activity is still faring better in Italy than in Germany or France.
- The sector is likely to support EZ GDP in Q2, as it seems to have done in Q1.
- Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
- ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response.
- We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.
- Jump in April core inflation was due to Easter effects in services; the remaining components were soft.
- Dovish forecasts from the ECB will pave the way for for a back-to-back 25bp rate cut next month…
- …and we now look for an additional 25bp cut in July, but also hikes next year, in June and September.
UNCERTAINTY OVER GLOBAL TRADE WILL WEIGH ON GROWTH...
- ...A SHORT TECHNICAL RECESSION IN H2 IS NOW OUR BASELINE
- Our forecasts for Q1 GDP and the April HICP imply upside risk for ECB rate expectations this week.
- Robust national business surveys point to upside risk to our Q2 forecasts for GDP in Germany and France.
- Tariff front-running seems to be just what the doctor ordered for manufacturing in France.
- The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
- Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
- Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
- Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
- ‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.
- The markets’ verdict is clear; trade uncertainty is a disinflationary shock, but we’re not convinced.
- We now think the ECB will cut its policy rate later this month, by 25bp, for a terminal rate of 2.25%.
- A high export ratio for EZ industry means higher US tariffs are a risk; construction is looking better.
