Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Global Weekly Monitor
- Front-loaded fiscal stimulus can add 0.5pp to German growth this year, in the best-case scenario.
- Defence spending is poised to accelerate after a slow start to the year, but the multiplier is low.
- Front-loading of infrastructure spending via €100B in funding for local government is a key upside risk.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, improved in May despite a fall in the current conditions index.
- Investor sentiment now points to a rebound in the PMI as markets forget all about tariffs.
- Near-real time data also signal resilience in the EZ economy midway through the second quarter.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A temporary reprieve in the US–China trade war is worth far less than financial markets are assuming.
- Early signs suggest Mr. Trump will go hard on the EU, keeping uncertainty for the EZ economy elevated.
- Isabel Schnabel is coming out swinging for ECB hawks, but will her argument carry the day?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU’s announcement of retaliation against US tariffs is an attempt to get Washington to the table.
- Brussels’ WTO case against the US indicates that it won’t accept 10% as a floor for tariffs.
- EU purchases of energy, agricultural products and defence goods are the clearest route to a deal.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ construction PMI rose in April, on the back of a recovery in new orders in Germany.
- Construction activity is still faring better in Italy than in Germany or France.
- The sector is likely to support EZ GDP in Q2, as it seems to have done in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
- ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response.
- We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Jump in April core inflation was due to Easter effects in services; the remaining components were soft.
- Dovish forecasts from the ECB will pave the way for for a back-to-back 25bp rate cut next month…
- …and we now look for an additional 25bp cut in July, but also hikes next year, in June and September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
UNCERTAINTY OVER GLOBAL TRADE WILL WEIGH ON GROWTH...
- ...A SHORT TECHNICAL RECESSION IN H2 IS NOW OUR BASELINE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our forecasts for Q1 GDP and the April HICP imply upside risk for ECB rate expectations this week.
- Robust national business surveys point to upside risk to our Q2 forecasts for GDP in Germany and France.
- Tariff front-running seems to be just what the doctor ordered for manufacturing in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
- Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
- Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week, in line with the consensus.
- Falling oil prices and a strengthening euro point to downside risk to the ECB’s June inflation forecasts.
- ‘Uncertainty’ will be a key word for Ms. Lagarde this week, but doves have the upper hand, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The markets’ verdict is clear; trade uncertainty is a disinflationary shock, but we’re not convinced.
- We now think the ECB will cut its policy rate later this month, by 25bp, for a terminal rate of 2.25%.
- A high export ratio for EZ industry means higher US tariffs are a risk; construction is looking better.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- French and Spanish inflation came in weaker than expected in March, and German joblessness rose...
- ...But consumer inflation expectations and selling price expectations are up and money supply firmed.
- The April decision by the ECB is now finely poised; a dovish March HICP could swing it for the doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE ECB HAS ONLY ONE MORE CUT IN IT...
- ...ASSUMING JUST SMALL US TRADE-TARIFF INCREASES
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The jump in investor sentiment points to a higher EZ Composite PMI in March.
- Current account data suggest services trade may be a drag on EZ GDP in Q1; inventories may offset it.
- The INSEE survey shows improving, but still subdued, business confidence in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation has fallen thus far in Q1, so the SNB will trim rates this week...
- ...But another jumbo 50bp cut is highly unlikely; we look for a 25bp cut, taking the policy rate to 0.25%.
- The Swiss monetary easing cycle likely ends there, with inflation set to rise over the coming months.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Domestic demand drove growth in the Eurozone in the second half of 2024; can it continue?
- Inventories and net trade will be important swing factors for growth in the first half of 2025.
- Our new forecasts put us well above the ECB; trade policy uncertainty is the dark horse.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Eurozone headline and core inflation likely undershot the consensus in February.
- Today’s data should be the first clear sign that EZ services inflation is now falling, from a trend of 4%.
- EZ consumers’ spending on goods saw a slow start to 2025, but don’t write off Q1 just yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
RISKS TO OUR HAWKISH ECB CALL ARE FOR LESS EASING...
- ...ASSUMING ONLY SMALL US TRADE TARIFF INCREASES
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The upturn in the EZ PMIs stalled in February, due to a plunge in the French services index.
- Near-term outlook for services output is still decent, and the PMIs signal green shoots in industry, again.
- ECB hawks will focus on rebounding services prices; doves will note weak French labour-market data.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
