Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Global Weekly Monitor
- EZ GDP growth picked up more than previously thought in Q3, far surpassing the ECB’s call, 0%.
- We reiterate our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q4, given our estimates for the big four.
- GDP growth will pick up in H1 next year, but probably by less than we previously thought.
- A hawkish German HICP keeps our forecast for Eurozone headline inflation at 2.2% for November…
- …but the details in Friday’s early EZ inflation numbers, however, tilt dovish, especially for the core.
- EZ retail sales likely had a slow start to Q4, due to weakness in Spain and Germany.
LITTLE IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT...
- The tiny fall in the EZ composite PMI in November still leaves it pointing to stronger GDP growth in Q4.
- The PMIs also indicate rising price pressures, signalling little need for another ECB cut this year.
- EZ negotiated wage growth dropped in Q3, but this is not the start of a new trend.
- The paltry 0.2% increase in EZ GDP in Q3 was confirmed, with minimal new country data.
- Trade figures suggest the drag from net trade in goods in Q2 disappeared in Q3…
- …The main impetus was a jump in exports to the US, which is unlikely to last.
- Swiss GDP is likely to have fallen outright in Q3, as US trade tariffs were hiked and unemployment rose.
- The ECB wage tracker implies EZ wage growth eased in Q3 and will slow further out to mid-2026.
- The ECB is not about to end QT, like the Fed; we expect a continued steady run-off, for now.
HOPES OF A Q4 RATE CUT DRIFTING OUT OF REACH
- …AS GROWTH AND INFLATION OVERSHOOT ECB EXPECTATIONS
- Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
- Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.
