Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Global Weekly Monitor
- EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
- Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
- Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.
- Construction and manufacturing likely drove another slight increase in French GDP in Q3.
- Leading indicators for investment in France are subdued, but falling saving is helping consumption.
- Our updated forecasts for the four majors still see EZ GDP rising by 0.1% in Q3, but with downside risk.
- Spanish GDP for Q2 was revised up, and surveys and hard data suggest we are too downbeat on Q3...
- ...We are revising up our forecast, though we still look for GDP growth to slow a touch.
- Italian GDP, meanwhile, is still likely to rise by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, reversing Q2’s decline.
INFLATION ABOVE 2% WILL KEEP THE ECB ON HOLD IN Q4
…THE EURO AND ENERGY PRICES ALLOWING
- We look for an upside surprise in EZ inflation this week, and a further blow to ECB easing hopes.
- Consumer inflation expectations tilt hawkish, but market-based expectations look dovish.
- Inflation expectations overall support the baseline in markets for the ECB to stay on hold, for now.
- September’s first business survey from INSEE for France suggests the outlook is still weak.
- We look for a small rise in the Eurozone’s flash PMIs next week, but they will still point to slow growth.
- Other surveys, such as Germany’s IFO BCI and the EC consumer sentiment gauge, likely advanced too.
- Fiscal easing to reduce energy prices will lower German inflation by 0.4-to-0.5pp in January.
- Eurozone employment growth eased in Q2, continuing the downward trend since 2022…
- …Hiring is falling in manufacturing and agriculture, even as it holds up well in construction and services.
- EZ GDP rose in Q2 only because of an accumulation of inventories...
- ...Inventories are now set to crash, but the drag from net trade will be buffered by a fall in imports.
- We now look for continued, albeit still-weak, Eurozone GDP growth in the second half of the year.
- It’s a coin toss between EZ headline inflation at 2.1% or 2.0% in August, but what happened in the core?
- Early consumers’ spending data for July point to downside risks to growth in Q3.
- Germany’s labour market seems to be turning a corner, and ECB inflation expectations are elevated.
