Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor
- We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.
- Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
- German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- French and Spanish inflation came in weaker than expected in March, and German joblessness rose...
- ...But consumer inflation expectations and selling price expectations are up and money supply firmed.
- The April decision by the ECB is now finely poised; a dovish March HICP could swing it for the doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The US confirmed its wish to raise tariffs on imports of EU cars next week; car parts will also be included.
- These hikes, touted in February, are “baked in the cake” for our Q2 GDP baseline; the hit will be small.
- Money and credit data are improving and continue to point to faster EZ GDP growth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EUR has risen against the USD ever since the EU and German fiscal announcements in March.
- Fundamentals, such as interest rate differentials, point to further strength ahead.
- We look for EURUSD to reach 1.10 at end-2025, and 1.15 at end-2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s IFO business climate index rose in March, mirroring the jump in the PMI…
- ...The surveys still point to recession risk in Q1, after the GDP fall in Q4; we doubt that will be the case…
- ...The surveys have underestimated GDP growth in recent quarters, and are likely doing so again in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI rose a touch in March, and Q1, supporting our expectation for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth…
- ...But the PMI is likely to fall again in April, as higher- tariff announcements weigh on firms’ outlooks.
- Price pressures eased at the end of Q1, paving the way for another ECB rate cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The jump in investor sentiment points to a higher EZ Composite PMI in March.
- Current account data suggest services trade may be a drag on EZ GDP in Q1; inventories may offset it.
- The INSEE survey shows improving, but still subdued, business confidence in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB cut rates for the fifth straight meeting, as expected, taking the policy rate to 0.25%.
- The lack of changes to the decision statement and forecasts means June’s meeting is wide open…
- ...But we maintain that the Bank has more reasons to keep its powder dry than cut again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in February, which is as good as it will get this year.
- Non-energy goods is a wild card for inflation in March; base effects point to a big jump.
- A blanket and sustained EU retaliatory tariff would lift inflation, but we doubt this is on the cards.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ trade data show a jump in exports to the US in January, as Mr. Trump fired off tariff threats.
- February and March figures are likely to show further increases in exports across the Atlantic…
- ...But we see some offsetting impact from tariff front-running by EU firms.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany needs a budget deficit of 4% of GDP over three years to lift defence spending quickly to 3.5%.
- Defence and infrastructure spending require more Bunds; €100B per year over the next decade?
- Rising uncertainty will weigh on Bund yields in Q2, but they’re right to fear the new fiscal plans.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation has fallen thus far in Q1, so the SNB will trim rates this week...
- ...But another jumbo 50bp cut is highly unlikely; we look for a 25bp cut, taking the policy rate to 0.25%.
- The Swiss monetary easing cycle likely ends there, with inflation set to rise over the coming months.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ manufacturing is on track for a strong Q1, but trade uncertainty looms over the rest of the year.
- The EU’s retaliation against US metals tariffs still leaves a small overall share of trade directly affected.
- EU import tariffs point to upside risk to consumer price inflation in core goods, in theory.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Growth in compensation-per-employee and the ECB’s wage tracker are easing…
- ...in line with other measures of EZ wage growth, pointing to a sustained slowdown this year.
- We doubt that wage growth will fall to close to 1%, as implied by the ECB’s wage tracker.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Services production was up sharply in Q4, thanks to continued strength in IT services.
- Surveys remain positive on the outlook for services, and the sector will lead the increase in GDP in Q1.
- Our nowcast model is looking ugly, but we reiterate our call for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth, for now.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The range of economic outcomes in the Eurozone is widening; be ready for whiplash in the surveys.
- High-stakes negotiations between the EU and the US in Q2, on tariffs, Ukraine, NATO and Greenland.
- Mixed economic data in Germany; is industrial production finally rebounding?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Domestic demand drove growth in the Eurozone in the second half of 2024; can it continue?
- Inventories and net trade will be important swing factors for growth in the first half of 2025.
- Our new forecasts put us well above the ECB; trade policy uncertainty is the dark horse.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB is playing it safe; trade uncertainty outweighs upside risks from fiscal stimulus, for now.
- April is wide open, but the ECB will pause its easing unless it perceives US tariffs on a sustained basis.
- The ECB has pushed out the point at which inflation hits 2%; it will soon have to abandon the idea entirely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany has fired a fiscal bazooka, which won’t go unnoticed by the ECB today.
- Swiss inflation fell further in February, to 0.3%; we think this is a trough, for now.
- We expect the SNB to cut by 25bp later this month, marking the final reduction in this easing cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU’s first defence package contains only a small element of joint loans; more will be needed soon.
- EZ unemployment remains pinned at a record low, though we think it will start rising soon, slowly.
- Markets see tariff risks as dovish for ECB policy, but the economic data are pulling in the other direction.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
