Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Global Weekly Monitor
- The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
- ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
- We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.
- EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
- Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
- Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.
- Construction and manufacturing likely drove another slight increase in French GDP in Q3.
- Leading indicators for investment in France are subdued, but falling saving is helping consumption.
- Our updated forecasts for the four majors still see EZ GDP rising by 0.1% in Q3, but with downside risk.
- Spanish GDP for Q2 was revised up, and surveys and hard data suggest we are too downbeat on Q3...
- ...We are revising up our forecast, though we still look for GDP growth to slow a touch.
- Italian GDP, meanwhile, is still likely to rise by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, reversing Q2’s decline.
- We look for an upside surprise in EZ inflation this week, and a further blow to ECB easing hopes.
- Consumer inflation expectations tilt hawkish, but market-based expectations look dovish.
- Inflation expectations overall support the baseline in markets for the ECB to stay on hold, for now.
- September’s first business survey from INSEE for France suggests the outlook is still weak.
- We look for a small rise in the Eurozone’s flash PMIs next week, but they will still point to slow growth.
- Other surveys, such as Germany’s IFO BCI and the EC consumer sentiment gauge, likely advanced too.
- Fiscal easing to reduce energy prices will lower German inflation by 0.4-to-0.5pp in January.
- Eurozone employment growth eased in Q2, continuing the downward trend since 2022…
- …Hiring is falling in manufacturing and agriculture, even as it holds up well in construction and services.
- EZ GDP rose in Q2 only because of an accumulation of inventories...
- ...Inventories are now set to crash, but the drag from net trade will be buffered by a fall in imports.
- We now look for continued, albeit still-weak, Eurozone GDP growth in the second half of the year.
- It’s a coin toss between EZ headline inflation at 2.1% or 2.0% in August, but what happened in the core?
- Early consumers’ spending data for July point to downside risks to growth in Q3.
- Germany’s labour market seems to be turning a corner, and ECB inflation expectations are elevated.
- The acceleration in money supply growth has faded, but it still signals solid underlying GDP growth.
- Surveyed EC selling price expectations rose in services but fell further in food.
- The Swiss economy came down to Earth in Q2 amid wild swings in net trade and inventories.
- GfK consumer confidence in Germany sank in September, but income expectations still look fine.
- All eyes on core inflation in France and Spain for signs of a downside surprise for the EZ print.
- Unemployment in Germany likely rose in August, but the IAB survey points to better times ahead.
- Our call for a September rate cut is hanging on by the skin of its teeth; can the August HICP save it?
- We doubt ECB doves will be able to push through easing in Q4 if the Bank stands pat next month.
- The game of chicken in French politics continues, with Mr. Bayrou’s government on the brink.
- German GDP fell by more than initially estimated in Q2, stung by falling investment and net trade.
- We still see inventories weighing on growth in H2, but a fall in imports is an upside risk for net trade.
- Look through the noise in EZ wage growth data for a trend of 2.5-to-3.0% year-over-year.
- EZ PPI inflation, ex-services, is stabilising just below 1%, but divergence among sectors is high.
- The trend in global energy prices points to continued deflation in EZ energy producer prices…
- …But food producer price inflation is sticky, signalling upside risk to consumer prices in this category.
- Swiss GDP growth likely slowed sharply in Q2 from the 0.8% q/q read in Q1 led by tariff front-running.
- Hard data and surveys imply a print of around 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Switzerland will enter recession in H2, even if “gold will not be tariffed!”.
- The ZEW confirms the message from the Sentix: investors don’t like the EU-US trade deal.
- Investor sentiment indices still point to a rise in the PMI in the coming months, but we doubt it.
- The EZ economy will struggle now that US tariffs have risen further.
- The shape of the Phillips curve is unstable over time, but its shifts are difficult to pin down with data.
- Data point to a flat PC in the EZ, and a high sacrifice ratio for the ECB, but only for demand-pull inflation.
- Our estimates of the NKPC support our broader call that EZ inflation will ultimately settle above 2%.
- National data for Q2 suggest a rise in EZ negotiated wage growth after a plunge in Q1.
- Early data for Q3 are mixed, but stable inflation points to wage growth holding broadly steady ahead.
- Falling Irish and German industrial production mean EZ industry had a difficult end to Q2.
- Industrial production in Germany plunged in June, or did it? We are not so sure.
- Green shoots in leading indicators for German capex, but an inventory overhang still looms in H2.
- German exports remain stuck in the mud, and US tariffs add further downside risk in H2.
- Italian industrial output edged up in June, while German turnover figures point to a rise there too.
- EZ industry fared well in Q2, a further correction in Irish production permitting.
- EZ retail sales recorded a decent June and suggest goods spending supported GDP in Q2.
