Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Global Datanotes Daily Monitor
- We see downside risks to the early inflation data for January in Germany and Spain, out this week…
- …But we’re slightly above the consensus on Eurozone Q4 GDP growth, at 0.3%.
- Will the January jump in the services output price PMI be replicated in the EC survey? We doubt it.
In one line: Stable, in contrast with rise in PMI and ZEW.
In one line: Decent, but now signals downside risks relative to official forecasts.
In one line: Off to a decent start in Q1.
In one line: Strength in manufacturing, but PMIs signal weakness in services.
In one line: EZ consumers seem to be beating the January blues.
- President Trump has backed down on Greenland, bringing relief to Nuuk, Copenhagen and markets.
- The EZ budget deficit widened in Q3, driven mainly by a significant increase in Germany’s deficit.
- Risks to Germany’s fiscal push remain tilted towards near-term disappointment on growth.
- The EU, following the Mercosur deal, looks all set to sign the “mother of all deals” with India.
- A trade deal involving energy could secure key markets for EU manufacturing, and energy imports.
- Both India and the EU are motivated to get a deal done at the end of January.
In one line: Investor were optimistic ahead of the stand-off over Greenland; EZ construction sector turning a corner.
- Investor sentiment soared at the start of 2026, but geopolitical tremors now hint at a slide in February.
- EZ construction output fell in November, but we still look for a decent gain over Q4 as a whole…
- …Leading indicators for construction in France and Germany are improving, slowly.
- Can the EU and Denmark find an off-ramp for Mr. Trump in Greenland that avoids war? We hope so.
- The downward revision to EZ inflation in December underscores dovish risk to ECB policy bets in Q1.
- We see EZ inflation falling to 1.6% in January, though these data are a wild card due to one-off effects.
In one line: The probability of further ECB easing is underpriced.
In one line: Upside risks building for Q4 GDP growth.
In one line: Back to growth; reversal of net trade drag a big upside risk to 2026 growth.
In one line: Italian industry bounces back.
In one line: One more decline coming in January before a rebound.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
- EZ house prices are rising strongly, but they’re driven by positive outliers in the smaller economies.
- Our model suggests that EZ house price growth will cool this year, to around 3% year-over-year.
- Rising house prices boost household net worth, which is now an upside risk for consumption growth.
- We are revising up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain, to reflect solid retail sales and industrial output data…
- …Spanish GDP likely rose by a punchy 0.7% in Q4, a touch better than in the third quarter.
- We still see an increase in Q4 growth in Italy, as the balance between net trade and inventories improves.
In one line: New year, newfound optimism.
