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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, April 2024

In one line: Disappointing, but don’t write off Q2 consumption just yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Services inflation in the EZ as grim as ever midway through Q2

  • EZ services inflation snapped back in May; it will come down eventually, but this will take a while.
  • The ECB will cut its policy rate this week, but hopes of a July cut are now lost; September is at risk too.
  • EZ consumers’ spending, ex-services, fell in April, but this was mainly due to Easter seasonals in food.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ headline inflation likely rose in May, matching the consensus

  • Inflation in the Eurozone likely rose a touch in May, to 2.5%, in line with the consensus.
  • The EZ labour market is in rude health but poses no threat to the slowdown in wages and inflation, yet. 
  • The Swiss economy performed better than initially estimated in Q1, boosted by services.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Jump in services inflation stands out like a sore thumb.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor German services inflation jumps in May; score one for ECB hawks

  • Services inflation in Germany jumped in May; it will be grist to the mill of ECB hawks urging caution.
  • Money supply growth in the Eurozone accelerated further in April, but lending growth remains slow.
  • German consumer confidence adds to our optimism that a Q2 rebound in consumption is coming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Hopes of an ECB July rate cut will be killed by Germany's May CPI

  • Some ECB policymakers are trying to keep the July rate cut alive; it likely will die this week, all the same.
  • We’re lifting our growth forecasts for France to take into account the boost from the Paris Olympics.
  • The inventory cycle in France will soon turn up, lifting GDP growth, even factoring in declining net exports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor German GDP growth will slow in Q2, but the recovery is durable

  • German GDP growth was propelled by construction and net exports in Q1; neither will be sustained…
  • …but growth in manufacturing capex is bottoming out and real income growth is accelerating.
  • We think GDP growth will slow in Q2, to 0.1%, as construction investment and net exports fall back.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q1 2024

In one line: Construction and net trade propelled growth in Q1; neither will last.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, May 2024

In one line: Decent; services activity is firm, even as inflation pressures ease.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor ECB to cut rates in June, but the July reduction perished yesterday

  • The June rate cut is safe, but sticky Q1 negotiated wage growth will prevent another one in July. 
  • We now see the ECB easing by 25bp in June, September, October and December; no cuts in 2025.
  • The May EZ PMIs add to our conviction that EZ GDP growth is continuing its tepid rebound in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will ECB doves have their wings clipped by today's Q1 wage data?

  • Is the idea of a July rate cut sinking without a trace? Isabel Schnabel seems to think so.
  • Today’s Q1 negotiated wage growth data are a wild card; one-offs in Germany are the main upside risk.
  • We agree with Ms. Schnabel’s assessment that the natural rate has increased, at least temporarily.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, March

In one line: A solid Q1, but output will fall back in Q2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Sticky services inflation still the key threat to the outlook for rates

  • EZ headline inflation held steady in April, matching the first estimate; core inflation fell slightly.
  • The near-term outlook for energy inflation has improved, but that will change if oil prices rebound.
  • Services inflation is as sticky as ever and will likely rebound in May; insurance inflation is rocketing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ fiscal policy: will the best laid plans of governments go awry?

  • EZ fiscal policy is now consolidating but will remainmuch looser than before the pandemic.
  • We think the Italian government is too optimistic on its deficit-reduction this year, and until 2026 too.
  • The path for Germany’s fiscal position will depend on spending, while revenues matter most in France.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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