Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) Craig Botham Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
In one line: Driven by a snap-back in services.
- Isabel Schnabel draws another line in the sand for the ECB’s policy rate to stay at 2.0%…
- …but we still think she and other hawks will lose out as dovish data tee up a 25bp cut in September.
- Fair value models point to Bund yields at 2.5%, but fiscal policy and Dutch pension selling say otherwise.
In one line: Reversing most of April’s jump.
In one line: At target, and risks tilted to the downside over the summer.
- A third of Swiss pharma exports go to the US; a 200% tariff could pull GDP down 4% at the extreme.
- Offsetting factors remain and, in the near term, tariff front-running poses upside risks to our forecasts.
- The maximum direct hit to EZ GDP of a 200% US tariff on pharma is 1%.
- Eurozone house prices rose at their fastest pace in four years in the first quarter…
- ...Advance national data suggest a slowdown in price growth in Q2, but we doubt it…
- ...Our new housing model points to an acceleration in house price growth this year and next.
In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on growth in Q2.
- Net exports warn of a downside surprise in German Q2 GDP; we look for zero growth.
- Manufacturing and services are upside risks to Q2 growth in Germany; construction was a drag.
- The upturn in real M1 growth points to accelerating German GDP growth from early 2026 onwards.
In one line: Down sharply.
In one line: Another big increase, before the recent delay in tariff hikes.
- The looming deadline for the increase in “reciprocal” tariffs has been delayed again, now to August 1.
- The upside surprise in German industrial output in May points to a better EZ print than we expected.
- EZ services had a rough start to Q2, but surveys have improved and point to a better Q2 than Q1.
In one line: Still improving, and surveys point to a strong finish to Q2.
In one line: Another bleak construction PMI read.
In one line: Q2 was a quarter to forget in French manufacturing; Spain is looking better.
In one line: Poor, but falling turnover at odds with the surveys.
- Tariffs will likely dominate this week; will Mr. Trump stick or twist in the negotiations with the EU?
- The near-term outlook for German manufacturing is better than what is implied by factory orders in May.
- EZ industrial production likely fell in May, reversing the jump in late Q1, ahead of US tariffs.
In one line: Back above zero, but unlikely to stay there for long.
- Headline inflation in Switzerland rose above zero in June, by 0.2pp to 0.1%.
- It will fall back again in July, to zero, where we expect it to hold steady until Q4.
- Our forecasts remain well below the SNB’s; another rate cut in September, to -0.25%, is still likely.
In one line: Up a touch because of an increase in Italy’s unemployment rate.
- A glass-half-full perspective indicates that the stars are aligned for a “beautiful releveraging” in the EZ.
- The EZ economy is completing a soft landing, an important prerequisite for a beautiful releveraging.
- Germany leading from the front is a key condition for a growth-supporting leverage cycle in the Eurozone.
