Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) Craig Botham Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.
In one line: Not much of a rebound but faster growth is on the way.
- Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
- Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.
- The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance.
- Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.
In one line: Growth slows but Spain still outperforming.
In one line: Lending standards tightened again, but demand for loans is still rising, just.
In one line: Italian GDP growth will pick up in Q4; Inflation expectations stabilising at a high level.
In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again.
- The ECB BLS showed banks tightened lending standards in Q3, boding ill for capex and spending…
- ...But these downbeat messages can safely be ignored, given other survey data.
- The first business survey for Italy for October suggests growth there is picking up, as in Germany.
In one line: Still pointing to decent growth alongside credit figures
In one line: Expectations at a cyclical high.
- Lending to the private sector is slowing at the margin but underlying momentum remains solid…
- ...Our measure of the credit impulse points to EZ GDP growth of around 0.5% q/q in Q4.
- Germany’s IFO survey adds to the message from the PMI that a rebound there will lead the way in Q4.
In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity.
- The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
- ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
- We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.
In one line: Here comes the turn in Germany.
In one line: PMIs remain terrible, but INSEE survey data look better.
In one line: On the up, but still subdued.
In one line: Punchy headline, but details remain flaky.
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
