Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) Craig Botham Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Falling imports to boost net exports in 2026?
- The ECB will hold fire next week, but the risk of a hawkish shift in communication is now elevated.
- EZ inflation is on track to settle well above the ECB’s target, based on current oil and gas price futures.
- A modest 50bp tightening in Q2, taking interest rates to the higher end of neutral, is now a key risk.
In one line: Revision due to Ireland; core domestic demand was strong.
- Domestic demand ex-inventories rose strongly in the EZ in Q4, despite the hit from a revision in Ireland.
- A jump in energy inflation is a risk to consumer confidence and spending in Q1.
- The EZ investment cycle is looking in better shape, despite downside risks to construction in Q1.
In one line: Consistent with likely weakness in Q1, but still too downbeat overall.
In one line: Stabilising, with mixed leading indicators.
In one line: More hawkish data for EZ short-term bonds to digest.
- EZ retail sales dipped in January but likely will be revised higher; French industry rebounded.
- Mr. Trump’s threats to cut off Spanish exports lack teeth; he is unlikely to restrict US LNG exports either.
- Spanish industry will feel less pain than its ‘big four’ peers if energy prices remain elevated.
EUROZONE INFLATION IS SHIFTING HIGHER…
- …COULD THE ECB HIKE THIS YEAR?
- Markets are speculating about an ECB hike in 2026, as energy prices surge and EZ core inflation jumps…
- …But we think the Bank will play it safe this month, opting to monitor the situation.
- The war in Iran and rising February core inflation pull up our 2026 inflation forecast by 0.2pp, to 2.1%.
- War in Iran will add 0.1-to-0.2pp to EZ inflation between now and June, at current oil and gas prices.
- Inflation in liquid fuels will jump immediately, but gas and electricity prices will rise more slowly.
- The ECB will view rising energy prices due to geopolitics as a negative supply shock.
In one line: A slight downside surprise, offsetting upside surprises in France and Spain.
In one line: Stability in the labour market, for now; state CPIs tilt dovish.
In one line: Still well above 2%, but little impact on the ECB’s reaction function.
In one line: EZ inflation still looks dovish for February, but not enough to shift the ECB’s stance.
- Inflation in the EZ stayed well below 2% in February, but this is not enough to shift the ECB towards a cut.
- The Swiss economy resumed growth in Q4, and is poised for even stronger GDP in 2026.
- Switzerland will continue to negotiate a US trade deal, which should revive its industry and exports.
In one line: A strong rise in M1 growth; did lending growth really slow?
- M1 growth leapt in January, but loan growth to non-financial firms slowed…or did it?
- The EC confidence survey fell in February, but the probability of a recession in the Eurozone is still low.
- Business sentiment in Italy edged down this month, but we remain optimistic about growth in 2026.
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
