Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- EZ interest rate expectations are being thrown around by the news-flow from Iran…
- …Too much tightening is now priced in for 2026; don’t pay rates into the March survey data.
- Tighter ECB policy means a flatter yield curve, similar to when pre-GFC rate hikes began in 2006.
In one line: Net trade in goods on track for a boost to growth in Q1.
In one line: Balanced, until the mic drop at the end.
In one line: From a “good place” to a stagflationary shock.
- EZ governments spent 2.5% of GDP in 2022 and 2023 to offset the hit from rising energy prices.
- Italy and Spain are first out the blocks now, with tax cuts on fuel and electricity to combat higher prices.
- Untargeted fiscal support will make a forceful tightening by the ECB more likely.
In one line: No help to GDP growth from construction in Q1.
In one line: The ECB is no longer 'in a good place.'
- Ms. Lagarde struck a balanced tone, and the ECB moved ahead of the curve with its new forecasts…
- …Yet we think policymakers have made up their minds; hikes are coming, unless growth collapses.
- The SNB left rates at 0.0%. It will use FX intervention to target inflation. The bar to negative rates is high.
- EZ inflation is headed for just under 3% by May; the ECB will hike in response, likely in June and July.
- The ECB will justify higher rates by the need to move interest rates to the higher end of neutral.
- History warns against hiking into oil-price shocks, but the ECB will believe it can pull it off, again.
- Surging energy prices will hit disposable income growth and consumers’ spending this year…
- …But household balance sheets are strong; consumers will keep spending.
- We’re lowering our growth forecasts for this year by 0.3pp, and by 0.1pp next year as spending slows.
In one line: On track for 2% by May.
- Inflation in France snapped back in February and is now headed for 2% by May.
- Eurozone industry stumbled at the start of 2026, and another energy-price shock weighs on the outlook.
- March’s European Council meeting could provide hints on support measures for EZ industry.
In one line: Calm before the energy surge.
- Upside risks to EZ inflation are rising by the day, as the war in Iran curtails movement through Hormuz.
- Inflation in refined oil products could stay elevated in Europe even if crude prices fall back.
- Our model currently points to German and EZ HICP inflation at 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, in March.
In one line: Falling imports to boost net exports in 2026?
- German hard data were mixed in early Q1; industry and retail sales weakened, but net trade jumped.
- Surveys point to strength in manufacturing in Q1, despite January declines in new orders and output.
- The increase in German construction output in January looks odd; we think it will be revised away.
- The ECB will hold fire next week, but the risk of a hawkish shift in communication is now elevated.
- EZ inflation is on track to settle well above the ECB’s target, based on current oil and gas price futures.
- A modest 50bp tightening in Q2, taking interest rates to the higher end of neutral, is now a key risk.
In one line: Revision due to Ireland; core domestic demand was strong.
- Domestic demand ex-inventories rose strongly in the EZ in Q4, despite the hit from a revision in Ireland.
- A jump in energy inflation is a risk to consumer confidence and spending in Q1.
- The EZ investment cycle is looking in better shape, despite downside risks to construction in Q1.
In one line: Consistent with likely weakness in Q1, but still too downbeat overall.
