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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

2 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Dovish decimals in the EZ HICP hide an overall hawkish report

  • Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish. 
  • We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December. 
  • We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Risks tilted to an upside surprise in the CPI; jobless claims should fall back next month.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Sep/Aug 2025

In one line: Inflation up, but less than we expected; spending, ex-services is flat.

1 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor All set for a slight upside surprise in the EZ HICP today

  • A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%. 
  • We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data. 
  • German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued. 

30 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Downside surprise in Spain lowers our EZ HICP forecast, slightly

  • Inflation in Spain rose by less than we expected, pulling down our EZ HICP forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.3%. 
  • The ESI rose in September and still signals low recession risk in the Eurozone. 
  • The IAB labour-market survey in Germany is on a tear, but other surveys are less optimistic.

EZ Datanote: ECB CES, August 2025

In one line: Another one for relatively hawkish policymakers.

29 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Will the window for further ECB easing in 2025 close this week?

  • We look for an upside surprise in EZ inflation this week, and a further blow to ECB easing hopes.
  • Consumer inflation expectations tilt hawkish, but market-based expectations look dovish.
  • Inflation expectations overall support the baseline in markets for the ECB to stay on hold, for now.

25 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Tumble in the IFO cancels out upbeat PMI in Germany

  • The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier. 
  • German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services. 
  • We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, September 2025

In one line: That’s more like it, but upturn in manufacturing is on borrowed time.

24 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMIs stay resilient in September, but the details look fragile

  • The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline. 
  • The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output. 
  • ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.

23 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're lifting our EURUSD forecast, but not enough for a rate cut

  • EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
  • We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17. 
  • If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda. 

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, September 2025

In one line: Positive pick-up in services, but downside risks loom in industrial output.

22 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: Will survey data shift the odds for ECB policy in Q4?

  • September’s first business survey from INSEE for France suggests the outlook is still weak.
  • We look for a small rise in the Eurozone’s flash PMIs next week, but they will still point to slow growth.
  • Other surveys, such as Germany’s IFO BCI and the EC consumer sentiment gauge, likely advanced too.
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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,