6 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Surveys suggest German industry is doing fine, but is it?

• German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat. 
• Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge. 
• Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.

October 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

HOPES OF A Q4 RATE CUT DRIFTING OUT OF REACH

• …AS GROWTH AND INFLATION OVERSHOOT ECB EXPECTATIONS

5 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're beefing up our inflation models with more details

• We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors. 
• We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month. 
• Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2025

In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole. 

EZ Datanote: Q3 GDP, State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.

3 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor October inflation kicks Q4 rate-cut hopes further into the long grass

• Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
• Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
• Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.