Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Datanotes Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- In Q1, the Winter Olympics and fiscal support soften the hit to Italian consumption from the energy shock.
- EU recovery funds will help support Italian GDP growth this year as domestic demand slows.
- We lower our forecast for EZ GDP growth in Q1 and Q2, by 0.1pp in each quarter, to 0.2%.
In one line: Lifted by soaring energy inflation, but the core and food will rise too in due course.
In one line: Industrial production fell in Q1, but net trade in goods rose sharply.
- German manufacturing fell in Q1, but survey data point to a robust end to the quarter and Q2 strength.
- Net trade in goods surged in Q1, but we suspect the boost was partially offset by a fall in inventories.
- Our nowcast models for Germany point to big upside risk to Q1 growth, but take them with a pinch of salt.
In one line: New orders stung by surge in input prices.
In one line: Strong gain in core orders.
- US-Iran ceasefire takes the sting out of rising EZ rate expectations, but tightening remains our base case.
- Core orders in German manufacturing rose solidly in February, and surveys point to further upside.
- Retail sales in the Eurozone all but stalled in Q1, and the outlook for Q2 is poor too.
In one line: Downside risks are widening for Q2.
- France is set to swing right in the 2027 presidential election, but that’s not strictly good news for RN.
- Big declines in energy consumption and output due to mild weather likely stung French growth in Q1.
- French tax revenues ended 2025 on a high, bringing much relief to the embattled minority government.
In one line: The stagflation shock is underway.
In one line: Stable, but renewed risks now loom.
In one line: Risks tilted to upside for EZ inflation; spending stung by weakness in both core and energy.
In one line: Slowing before the energy shock.
- Inflation in the Eurozone jumped in March, and will rise further in coming months, to 3%.
- We now see higher food inflation adding 0.1pp and 0.2pp to the EZ HICP in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
- Risks are tilted towards an April hike, but we still think the ECB will wait until June.
In one line: Up and away, and more gains are coming.
In one line: A hawkish signal for the ECB.
- German inflation soared in March, as energy prices jumped; core inflation was stable.
- We now see EZ headline inflation at 2.6% in March, with the core dipping by 0.1pp, to 2.3%.
- EC selling prices and consumers’ inflation outlook jumped in March, tilting hawkishly for the ECB.
In one line: German inflation on track to overshoot the consensus today, slightly.
In one line: Solid, before inflation saps real M1 growth.
In one line: Relatively stable, but consistent with downside risk to growth.
