Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- We look for an upside surprise in EZ inflation this week, and a further blow to ECB easing hopes.
- Consumer inflation expectations tilt hawkish, but market-based expectations look dovish.
- Inflation expectations overall support the baseline in markets for the ECB to stay on hold, for now.
- The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier.
- German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services.
- We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.
- The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline.
- The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output.
- ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.
- EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
- We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17.
- If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda.
- September’s first business survey from INSEE for France suggests the outlook is still weak.
- We look for a small rise in the Eurozone’s flash PMIs next week, but they will still point to slow growth.
- Other surveys, such as Germany’s IFO BCI and the EC consumer sentiment gauge, likely advanced too.
- We think a rebound in inflation will now close the window on further monetary policy easing.
- Risks are asymmetric, however; the ECB will either cut or hold in the next three-to-six months.
- A near-term downside surprise in core inflation and further euro strength will prompt doves to pounce.
- Our fair-value model for bunds points to little near-term upside to yields, due to falling US rates.
- We estimate that fiscal stimulus in Germany will add around 30bp to bund yields between now and 2027.
- Overall, we see a slow rise in bund yields to 3% by 2027, implying limited near-term upside.
- Fiscal easing to reduce energy prices will lower German inflation by 0.4-to-0.5pp in January.
- Eurozone employment growth eased in Q2, continuing the downward trend since 2022…
- …Hiring is falling in manufacturing and agriculture, even as it holds up well in construction and services.
- The ECB stands pat, despite lowering its headline and core inflation forecast for 2027; why?
- A more balanced growth outlook and a relatively high neutral rate mean the ECB is happy, for now.
- Has the bar for easing been lifted or is the risk of a Q4 cut now higher? It could be both, actually.
- A cyclical rise in tax revenues provides an incentive for political brinkmanship to continue in France.
- Industrial output signals upside risk to investment but how will consumers respond to falling incomes?
- Growth in France will drop to the bottom of the pile of the major four economies next year.
- The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months.
- The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening.
- Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes.
- EZ GDP rose in Q2 only because of an accumulation of inventories...
- ...Inventories are now set to crash, but the drag from net trade will be buffered by a fall in imports.
- We now look for continued, albeit still-weak, Eurozone GDP growth in the second half of the year.
- The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
- We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
- The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving.
- The number of people out of work dropped by the most in over three years in July…
- ...As a result, the EZ unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in July and is likely to have held steady in August.
- Labour-market data provide little ammunition for ECB doves in their fight for another rate cut.
- It’s a coin toss between EZ headline inflation at 2.1% or 2.0% in August, but what happened in the core?
- Early consumers’ spending data for July point to downside risks to growth in Q3.
- Germany’s labour market seems to be turning a corner, and ECB inflation expectations are elevated.
- The acceleration in money supply growth has faded, but it still signals solid underlying GDP growth.
- Surveyed EC selling price expectations rose in services but fell further in food.
- The Swiss economy came down to Earth in Q2 amid wild swings in net trade and inventories.
- GfK consumer confidence in Germany sank in September, but income expectations still look fine.
- All eyes on core inflation in France and Spain for signs of a downside surprise for the EZ print.
- Unemployment in Germany likely rose in August, but the IAB survey points to better times ahead.
- Our call for a September rate cut is hanging on by the skin of its teeth; can the August HICP save it?
- We doubt ECB doves will be able to push through easing in Q4 if the Bank stands pat next month.
- The game of chicken in French politics continues, with Mr. Bayrou’s government on the brink.
- German GDP fell by more than initially estimated in Q2, stung by falling investment and net trade.
- We still see inventories weighing on growth in H2, but a fall in imports is an upside risk for net trade.
- Look through the noise in EZ wage growth data for a trend of 2.5-to-3.0% year-over-year.
- EZ PPI inflation, ex-services, is stabilising just below 1%, but divergence among sectors is high.
- The trend in global energy prices points to continued deflation in EZ energy producer prices…
- …But food producer price inflation is sticky, signalling upside risk to consumer prices in this category.
