Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- Ms. Lagarde hinted at a rate cut if March forecasts fall below September’s baseline; we doubt they will…
- …The threshold for the ECB to take evasive action in March due to EURUSD is high, likely around 1.25.
- German factory orders soared by almost 10% in Q4, but survey data signal downside risk in Q1.
- EZ inflation dropped below 2% in January, and is set to remain at that level in February.
- The dovish pressure on the ECB will increase into the March meeting, but likely not enough for a cut.
- A downgrade to the ECB’s near-term core inflation forecast is the main dovish risk for policymakers.
- Soft French inflation data point to the EZ HICP conforming to the consensus today.
- We still see higher domestic inflation offsetting disinflationary currency strength in Switzerland…
- …Swiss headline inflation was likely stable in January, at 0.1%; will the SNB intervene to push down CHF?
- The ECB will hold rates steady this week, amid data to suit both hawkish and dovish policymakers.
- German retail sales rose by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, reversing weakness in Q3.
- The Swiss PMIs point to a rebound in growth in early 2026, matching our forecasts.
- Money supply and credit data signal a stable trend in EZ GDP growth, at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- The headline ESI index jumped to a post-Covid high in January, signalling upside risk to growth.
- ESI selling price expectations eased in January, but upside risk to services inflation lingers.
- EURUSD eyeing 1.20 and beyond adds to the dovish pressure on the ECB ahead of the January HICP…
- …A EURUSD move above 1.22 in coming weeks would likely lower the ECB’s core inflation forecast.
- Italian survey data support our view that a turn in the inventory cycle boosted Q4 GDP.
- The EU and India, against a challenging global trade backdrop, have signed the mother of all trade deals.
- Both sides made concessions on agriculture and climate to reach a “win-win” free trade agreement.
- The direct boost to EU GDP from rising exports to India is small, but the indirect lift could be greater.
- We see downside risks to the early inflation data for January in Germany and Spain, out this week…
- …But we’re slightly above the consensus on Eurozone Q4 GDP growth, at 0.3%.
- Will the January jump in the services output price PMI be replicated in the EC survey? We doubt it.
- President Trump has backed down on Greenland, bringing relief to Nuuk, Copenhagen and markets.
- The EZ budget deficit widened in Q3, driven mainly by a significant increase in Germany’s deficit.
- Risks to Germany’s fiscal push remain tilted towards near-term disappointment on growth.
- Investor sentiment soared at the start of 2026, but geopolitical tremors now hint at a slide in February.
- EZ construction output fell in November, but we still look for a decent gain over Q4 as a whole…
- …Leading indicators for construction in France and Germany are improving, slowly.
- Can the EU and Denmark find an off-ramp for Mr. Trump in Greenland that avoids war? We hope so.
- The downward revision to EZ inflation in December underscores dovish risk to ECB policy bets in Q1.
- We see EZ inflation falling to 1.6% in January, though these data are a wild card due to one-off effects.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
- EZ house prices are rising strongly, but they’re driven by positive outliers in the smaller economies.
- Our model suggests that EZ house price growth will cool this year, to around 3% year-over-year.
- Rising house prices boost household net worth, which is now an upside risk for consumption growth.
- US Greenland ambitions will accelerate EU defence spending and raise the risk of an EU-US trade war.
- The EU economic ‘bazooka’ would likely be unholstered if the US moves to take over Greenland.
- An intra-NATO shooting match is highly unlikely, but tensions will ratchet up before a resolution is found.
- Swiss CPI in December eliminates the risk of deflation, as well as questions about negative rates.
- German factory orders rose strongly midway through Q4, but surveys signal downside risks.
- Falling unemployment and rising selling prices in the ESI tilt hawkish after dovish December inflation data.
- EZ inflation shifted dovishly in December, setting up a bigger drop in Q1 than the ECB expected…
- …The ECB prefers to sit out near-term volatility in inflation; that preference will be tested in Q1.
- German retail sales growth likely improved slightly over Q4, despite the fall in November.
- Risks have swung to a downside surprise in today’s EZ HICP, and the ECB’s forecasts being too hawkish.
- Markets are currently pricing in almost no chance of a further rate cut in H1; that will change soon.
- The EZ PMI is holding on for a gain over Q4, but the direction of travel across the quarter is downward.
- We look for an upside surprise in this week’s EZ December inflation data, but all eyes are now on Q1.
- Switzerland likely fell into deflation in December, but the SNB remains poised to hold rates steady in Q1.
- We think EZ retail sales beat the consensus in November, but manufacturing likely weakened.
- EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
- Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
- Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.
- German Q3 growth was hit by falling consumption, but the spending details are better than the headline.
- Investment in Germany is stabilising, but we’re yet to see evidence of the much hoped-for recovery.
- Jump in government spending was mainly due to welfare spending, but borrowing is rising fast.
