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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, December 2023

In one line: Old news; will January and February inflation be soft enough for a March cut? 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, December 2023

In one line: All due to base effects; how far will inflation fall in January?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Full-Year GDP, Germany, 2023

In one line: Pulled lower by falling domestic demand; GDP likely fell in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor The French economy ran out of luck in Q4; GDP likely fell by 0.2%

  • Data until November suggest French GDP plunged in Q4; we’re lowering our forecasts.
  • The savings rate is a key swing factor for French consumption growth; what will it do in 2024?
  • The inventory correction in France has likely run its course, but net investment is slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending & Final Inflation, France, Nov/Dec 2023

In one line: A rise in core goods consumption not enough to lift Q4 spending; inflation will fall sharply in Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders & Trade, Germany, November 2023

In one line: Factory orders remain depressed; net trade in goods soared in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, December 2023

In one line: All due to base effects in energy; the downtrend in the core remains intact.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor March's ECB Meeting Is Live; It All Depends on inflation in January

  • EZ inflation was lifted by base effects in December; the downtrend in the core is uninterrupted.
  • Markets are folding on expectations of a March rate cut; we aren’t, until we see January inflation figures.
  • German retail sales plunged in November; seasonals have caught up with Black Friday shopping.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, December 2023

In one line: Headline rebounds more than expected, but the core undershot our forecast.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, December 2023

In one line: Revised higher, but still consistent with a technical recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation, North Rhine Westphalia & France, December 2023

In one line: EZ headline rebounded in December, but the core likely eased further.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, December

In one line: Stable, but we doubt the trend in claims is improving.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Final Manufacturing PMIs & Money Supply, EZ, Dec/Nov 2023

In one line: EZ manufacturing remained in recession in Q4; is the plunge in M1 fading?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 January 2024 Eurozone Monitor Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March

  • Markets think the ECB will cut rates in March, as do we; inflation below 2% by February should do it.
  • Energy prices are the key wildcard for headline inflation in Q1; so far the trend looks benign.
  • In the core, non-energy goods inflation is about to collapse, but services inflation is still sticky.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: Drop confirmed. Inflation will rebound in December, but what happens in January?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 December 2023 Eurozone Monitor Slide in the PMI Confirms Tough End to 2023 for EZ Economy

  • Friday’s PMIs confirmed the EZ economy was still is in a rut in December, pointing to falling GDP in Q4.
  • The PMI input price component suggests EZ headline inflation will stabilise at just under 2% in H1 24.
  • Accelerating third quarter growth in hourly labour costs is grist on ECB hawks’ mills.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, December

In one line: If Mr. Powell is Santa, Ms. Lagarde is the Grinch. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,